The first edition of the ATP Cup begins this week and as part of our preview coverage we have predicted the outcome of every group and the overall winners.
A new decade of tennis kicks off with an exciting new tournament in the form of the ATP Cup.
The men’s tennis tournament will be held at different venues (Brisbane, Perth, and Sydney) and it is the first ATP team competition since the World Team Cup in 2012.
There are 24 teams divided into 6 groups of 4 nations each, with each location hosting the play of two different groups.
The winners of the 6 groups along with the two best runners-up will contest the quarterfinals, with each tie in the competition comprising two singles matches and one doubles contest.
The ATP Cup borrows certain elements from the new Davis Cup, mainly the two singles and one doubles match format but also brings about some new developments on the ATP Tour, one being that ranking points are awarded.
A maximum of 750 is available to a player based on their team’s progress, their individual match results, the stage of the competition and the quality of the opponent.
On-court coaching will be allowed to take place in between games, something usually seen in the WTA Tour.
The countries qualified based on the ATP Ranking of its No. 1 singles player, with Switzerland not playing after Roger Federer withdrew from the tournament.
As part of our ATP Cup coverage, we have previewed each group and provided a top matchup to watch along with a prediction.
Group A (Brisbane)
Teams: Serbia, France, South Africa and Chile
Predicted Winner: Serbia
Expect it to be a tough fight between Serbia and France but Serbia are backed to just pull through. Novak Djokovic, at this time of the year, is usually unbeatable and Dusan Lajovic can more than hold his own against Benoit Paire or Gilles Simon.
Key matchup to watch: Novak Djokovic vs Kevin Anderson
While a good all-round France team poses the biggest threat, the opening match against South Africa will also be key to whether Serbia can make it out of the group or not. Kevin Anderson had a rough 2019, bogged down by injuries and poor run of form.
He enters 2020 world-ranked 91st but Anderson is fresh and fully focused to impress in this tournament. He has experience playing top rivals at the highest level and if he can get a win over world number two Djokovic, who he has beaten twice before, then Serbia would be in trouble. It should be a good battle.
Group B (Perth)
Teams: Spain, Japan, Georgia and Uruguay
Predicted Winner: Spain
Spain should easily win this group. Rafael Nadal is playing fantastically well and for once does not seem to have any injury concerns. Roberto Bautista Agut capped off a highly successful 2019 season with the Davis Cup win with his Spanish teammates. None of the teams have what it takes to beat the Davis Cup holders here.
Key matchup to watch: Rafael Nadal vs Yoshihito Nishioka
Rafael Nadal is arguably in the form of his life. He has lost only twice since the Madrid Open in May. He has dominated matches, often winning without breaking a sweat.
Kei Nishikori, another player on a comeback trail having ended his 2019 season with an elbow injury after the US Open, was due to be Nadal’s opponent before he dropped out. Japan’s chances of qualifying as group winners rest on this tie so instead it falls on Yoshihito Nishioka to produce a special performance against Nadal.
Group C (Sydney)
Teams: Belgium, Great Britain, Bulgaria and Moldova
Predicted Winner: Belgium
This will be another tough one to predict but Belgium are backed to win this group, simply because they have the better No. 2 players. Belgium and Bulgaria both have two strong No. 1 players in David Goffin and Grigor Dimitrov but Belgium’s Steve Darcis is the superior No. 2 player when compared to Dimitar Kuzmanov of Bulgaria. Andy Murray’s withdrawal is a big blow to GB’s hopes.
Key matchup to watch: Grigor Dimitrov vs David Goffin
Belgium are the top seed in this group but without an established No. 2 player, they are hugely dependent on David Goffin to win his matches over the course of the tournament, which is the same situation for Bulgaria with Grigor Dimitrov. This match between the leading players for each country could be the one that helps to decide the group.
Group D (Perth)
Teams: Russia, Italy, the United States and Norway
Predicted Winner: Russia
Russia are among the favorites along with Spain to win the ATP Cup but they will be pushed very hard here. This group will have close matches in all ties as the teams are so closely matched. If Danill Medvedev recovers from his hip injury and plays at his peak, then Russia are the pick in this group. Matteo Berrettini’s withdrawal means Italy has Fabio Fognini as their top-seeded player. It could be close.
Key matchup to watch: Danill Medvedev vs John Isner
Danill Medvedev is coming off a hip injury and big-serving John Isner could be his and Russia’s big test in a tricky group. Medvedev is generally a great returner but he is yet to face the quality of Isner’s serve. The ATP Cup will be their first-ever meeting.
Group E (Sydney)
Teams: Austria, Croatia, Argentina and Poland
Predicted Winner: Argentina
Another tight group to call but Argentina are backed to spring a surprise. Dominic Thiem has been in superb form since the Laver Cup but it will be too much for him to do it all alone as Austria’s No. 2 Dennis Novak is simply not as good as Guido Pella or Marin Cilic. Borna Coric had a long injury layoff in the 2019 season and he may well be rusty. Poland should not be counted out either as both Hubert Hurkacz and Kamil Majchrzak are capable of pulling off some upset wins.
Key matchup to watch: Diego Schwartzman vs Hubert Hurkacz
For Argentina to win this group, they have to beat Poland. For that, Diego Schwartzman needs to be at his best against Hubert Hurkacz. Interestingly, they have never faced each other. Hurkacz has a big serve and his movement is impressive for someone his size. Schwartzman’s returning is world-class but his serve is still a huge liability and he will need to produce some impressive tennis to get Argentina through.
Group F (Brisbane)
Teams: Germany, Greece, Canada and Australia
Predicted Winner: Australia
The Group of Death and a nightmare for predictors. Germany have two very strong players in Alexander Zverev and Jan-Lennard Struff. So do Canada with the in-form Denis Shapovalov and the prodigious Felix Auger-Aliassime. Australia have the speed Demon in Alex de Minaur and the mercurial talents of Nick Kyrgios. Leading Greece is the hugely talented Stefanos Tsitsipas.
In a tight group such as this, Australia can emerge. De Minaur is in a good nick at the moment and Kyrgios has shown that he can play well in team competitions, having previously enjoyed and impressed at the Laver Cup. Add to that, they will have the motivation of performing with the huge support of the home crowd.
Key matchup to watch: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Nick Kyrgios
More than 5 years ago, Nick Kyrgios burst onto the world stage with a stunning performance to beat the then-World No. 1 Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon with many marking the moment as the birth of a new star. Since then, he has made just one Slam quarterfinal and in the eyes of most tennis analysts, failed to live up to his huge talents and potential.
Felix Auger-Aliassime is in that stage of his career with most professionals regarding him as the best prodigy since Rafael Nadal. Two hugely talented players, with vastly different game styles and attitudes, mean this could be a highly entertaining match and one that Canada needs to win to stand a chance of qualifying.
Final 8 and tournament winner
I expect two of France, the U.S. and Canada to make the quarters as the two best second-place teams. That means our top 8 will be, Serbia, Spain, Belgium, Russia, Argentina, Australia and two of France, the USA and Canada.
From those teams, Spain are backed to be the winners, beating Russia in a possible final. The choice was easy to make. Rafael Nadal is in scintillating form. Roberto Bautista Agut is the highest-ranked No. 2 player in the ATP Cup and Spain are the reigning Davis Cup champions.
They have received a very kind group and can build from there, so they are our pre-tournament pick to win the first ATP Cup.