Tennis is in a weird transformation. Truly great players, including Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, are either done playing or likely getting near the end of their careers. Only Djokovic is currently fit and playing well. But luckily for the ATP tour, while there is a lack of extremely high-end talent between Djokovic and the young guys just starting, those young guys seemingly are really good.
In fact, there are so many good young players that instead of making this list “25 years old and younger” I just went with under 25 years old which pushed aside players like Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe (both 25), and Daniil Medvedev (27). I also didn’t include Stefanos Tsitsipas because he is just barely hanging on to 24 (he turns 25 in early August) and all of the players that follow might pass him by soon.
So which players, in my humble (and likely wrong) opinion are the best of the next generation of potential tennis greats? The five that follow. And feel free to disagree.
ATP under-25 No. 5: Lorenzo Musetti
Musetti just feels like he is about to explode onto the tennis scene. The 21-year-old Italian hasn’t won any tournaments in 2023, but he seems like he is just on the cusp of winning several. Since April, Musetti has lost to Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals in Monte-Carlo, Stefanos Tsitsipas in Barcelona and again at the ATP 500 in Rome, Carlos Alcaraz at the French Open, and Frances Taifoe at the Stuttgart Open. Except for one tournament (Musetti lost in the ATP 1000 in Madrid to Yannick Hanfmann), Musetti is losing to really good players.
Musetti needs a bit more defining, especially with a one-handed backhand. He can move well on any surface, and like most young players, just needs to believe in himself to gain a bit more consistency. He has already defeated Carlos Alcaraz (2022 Hamburg final) and Novak Djokovic (2023 Monte Carlo), so clearly the talent is there.
Musetti is also a former No. 1 as a junior and has been ranked as high as No. 16 on the ATP tour. It might take him a bit longer than the players that follow on this list to be truly good, but the expectation should be that he gets there and stays in or around the top ten for years to come.
ATP under-25 No. 4: Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud is number four on this list because even though he has made the finals of several recent Grand Slams, one wonders if he is simply good enough to get to the final but not really good enough to get over the hump. Not that there is any shame in who Ruud has lost to in those finals, though. In 2022, he lost to Rafael Nadal in the French Open final, Ruud lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open final last year, and he lost to Novak Djokovic in this year’s final of the French Open.
The thing is that when Ruud gets to the final of a slam, he gets wiped out in matches that aren’t close. In 10 possible sets against Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Nadal, Ruud has won just one set. There just appears to be a cravasse between Ruud’s top level and other players of high-level tennis.
One might also assume that when Ruud participates in tournaments where he doesn’t face the other three players mentioned above that he might dominate those tourneys. But Ruud, though is in ranked inside the top five on the ATP circuit, has won just one tournament in 2023 (the Estoril Open against not-great competition) and three in 2022. He has won 10 ATP tour finals, but nine have come on clay.
Ruud is also 24 years old – certainly not old by any stretch unless it is in comparison to the other players on this list – and might have missed out on his chance to win a major already. He is clearly not as good as Alcararz and the other three players listed here might surpass him too as well. Ruud will be a good player for a long time on the ATP, but he might just not win any majors.
ATP under-25 No. 3: Jannik Sinner
I almost – almost – had Jannik Sinner number 4 here. But I think that long-term the 21-year-old Italian will finally hone his game enough where he is consistently battling for tournament titles. He went on a bit of a run at the end of 2021 when he won three tournaments and only lost to players who are really good (like Daniil Medvedev, Frances Tiafoe, and Carlos Alcararz).
But then Sinner only won one tournament in 2022 (albeit against Alcaraz at the Umag Open where he destroyed Alcaraz in the last two sets 6-1 6-1). Still, he was mostly losing to players like Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas so Sinner was better than his competition against lesser players. Truly great players need to rise above all of their competition, though.
Sinner has proven he can defeat nearly anyone on the ATP tour. Against Alcaraz at tour-level tournaments, Sinner is 3-3. Against Ruud, Sinner is 2-0. Sinner needs to learn to be better on grass, but he is just fine on hard court (7 of his 8 tour titles have come on that surface) and Sinner has won one tour title on clay (the Umag Open against Alcaraz).
Is Sinner going to win Wimbledon? That is unlikely though he moves well and has the game to win on that surface. But Sinner could be a real threat at the US Open. If Sinner can learn to be more consistent, he is a threat at any major in 2024.
ATP under-25 No. 2: Holger Rune
Just to do a tease here, the player that is number 1 on this list should be blatantly obvious. If I were to have ranked any other player at number 1 I should have lost my ability to write about tennis. Or heck, write at all. All the rest of the players here have some kind of weaknesses that tey need to work on to sustain a high level of success in future years.
Rune, though, has the versatility of his game to be a danger on any surface. No, he hasn’t proven he can play well on tennis simply because he hasn’t played much on grass. Rune isn’t going to win Wimbledon this year, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the skills to be great. He had played only three matches in his career on grass before last week’s Cinch Championships and Rune still made it to the semifinals.
I mean, how many players on the ATP tour can say they have a winning record head-to-head over Novak Djokovic? Rune does. It might only be three matches, but Rune leads the battle 2-1. While Rune and Alcaraz have only played twice, they have split those matches. Heck, Rune even has a head-to-head lead over Tsitsipas, 2-0.
And while all of those head-to-heads are small sample sizes, that’s because Holger Rune just turned 20 years old in April. It is definitely not out of the realm of possibility to see Rune play lots of title matches with the player who is number one on this list for many years to come.
ATP under-25 No. 1: Carlos Alcaraz
I am not a complete idiot. Carlos Alcaraz isn’t just number one on this list, he is currently the top-ranked player on the ATP tour and will be the top seed at Wimbledon. He has won only one major so far, last year’s US Open. but the guy is only 20 years old. He plays, however, like someone who has been on the professional circuit for the last decade. Nothing seems to faze him and he plays with such unbridled joy that it is impossible not to like him.
He has won 10 titles over the last two years and we are only halfway done with 2023. After winning the Cinch Championships on Sunday, Alcaraz has now won a title on every surface. Between September 2022 and January 2023, he was ranked number 1 – the youngest player ever to earn the ranking – and he just regained that ranking. If he wins Wimbledon, there is likely no disrupting a potentially decade-long run of being atop the ATP rankings.
On the clay of the 2022 Madrid Open (which Alcaraz won, of course), he defeated Rafael Nadal one day and then the next day defeated Novak Djokovic. Alcaraz has a ridiculous career record of 125-35 and is 35-4 in 2023. He is 29-8 at Grand Slam events.
While Alcaraz had never won a tournament on grass before, he just did at the Queen’s Club. He isn’t just a threat to win every tournament he enters, he should favored to win every one. And when he loses, it isn’t because he beats himself, it is simply because a minor miracle has happened for his opponent. Carlos Alcaraz isn’t just the best player under 25 years old on the ATP tour, he is very likely the best player of any age.