Wimbledon starts in a week! On the men’s side, at least, there appears to be a clear favorite. The women’s side is a bit more open, but some dark horses lurk.
Let’s assume that Novak Djokovic, even though he oddly will be the second seed at Wimbledon with the top seed going to number 1 ranked Carlos Alcaraz, will be the favorite to win the tournament and everyone else is a distant second. But on the women’s side, top-ranked Iga Swiatek hasn’t shown she can come anywhere close to winning Wimbledon.
To win on grass it helps to have a big serve but the surface requires a player to move extremely well, too. Even though racket composition has changed a lot since John McEnroe and Bjorn Borg played at Wimbledon, the philosophy of how to win remains the same. Hit your serve well and win points at times coming to the net. So which three players can do that and might surprise people by being victorious in 2023?
Three dark horses that have a decent chance of winning Wimbledon in 2023
Wimbledon dark horse – Sebastian Korda
Korda is currently ranked 25th in the world, but his game has been improving of late. He made it to the semifinals at the Queen’s Club last week before losing to Carlos Alcaraz 3-6 4-6. Up until that point, Korda’s thunderous serve had helped him dominate matches and build quite a bit of confidence.
He even said he thinks he should be “one of the favorites at Wimbledon” and said so without any hint of irony. Korda is just 22 years old with probably his best tennis in front of him. If he can land his first serve in and dictate the pace of play, he has a puncher’s chance against anyone.
If the 6’5″ Korda does have a chance, he will need to get through the first few rounds fairly quickly. Majors can be exhausting and that takes a toll on one’s serve and ability to move. But if he stays fresh, by the time the finals come around, he could shock the world.
Wimbledon dark horse – Karolína Muchová
Karolina Muchova hasn’t played since the French Open where she made it to the finals, and battled top-ranked Iga Swiatek to three sets before falling 4-6 in the third. But Swiatek is a completely different player on grass and hasn’t advanced even into the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Muchova, at least, has made the quarterfinals twice at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.
Muchova has also been playing her most sustained successful tennis since she turned pro in 2014. After not being ranked in the top 100 at the end of 2022, she is currently ranked 16th. She has a big serve – peaking around 110 miles per hour – and can control the game on grass. She can also keep her volleys low which is a must to win matches at Wimbledon.
Muchova is also strong at the net so if she can get in a groove where she is landing her first serve and pressuring her opponent by attacking the net, she could be in great shape. But much of how deep of a run Muchova has at Wimbledon might depend on her draw.
If she ends up on the same side as Swiatek, who will be the number 1 seed, she has an excellent chance of advancing. Swiatek might end up being an all-time great, but she has to figure out how to win at the grass major first and she hasn’t shown she can do so. If Muchova has to face players like Petra Kvitova or Elena Rybakina, things could be much more difficult.
Wimbledon dark horse – Frances Tiafoe
It’s weird to have a second American on this list because the last American to win Wimbledon was Pete Sampras in 2000. So, you know, 23 years ago. And American tennis has struggled a bunch since then, but lately, there’s been a bit of a resurgence. This has mostly been led by Taylor Fritz, but Tiafoe entered the top 10 of the ATP at the beginning of last week.
Tiafoe has the game to win on grass. He won the Stuttgart Open just last weekend and has the athleticism to run balls down and the touch to hit at angles. He isn’t likely going to get 20 aces in a match at Wimbledon, but he does place his serve well and can play off any returns. With Tiafoe it’s just a matter of staying consistent from match to match and staying ahead.
But how great would it be if Tiafoe won Wimbledon? He played with unbridled joy and an infectious exuberance. Fans like him because he seems as if he is a very likable person. He plays a bit like he is one of us as well. He’s surprised sometimes when he hits a shot that even he doesn’t expect to land in and when he does lose he does so with class.
But really, Novak Djokovic is such a runaway favorite that even Carlos Alcaraz seems like a dark horse. He isn’t, of course; He’s the top-ranked player on the ATP circuit. And since Swiatek is so awful at Wimbledon, even though she will the top seed she seems like a dark horse.