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ATP Rio de Janeiro: Preview and Predictions

By Nate Slaymaker

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ATP Rio de Janeiro: Preview and Predictions

The first major clay tournament of the year is the 500-level ATP Rio de Janeiro. The Rio Open sits in the middle of the South American swing that takes place on clay courts across the continent every February. The biggest of those tournaments begins Monday in the festive city in Brazil.

The heat in Rio will be a factor this week. Temperatures over the weekend reached 100 F (38 C) and similar weather is predicted for the entire tournament. The weather will test the players physically and mentally.

Nadal did not consider himself a contender in Australia, but has declared himself physically ready to defend his title in Rio.

Some top level players steer clear of the South American swing, preferring the hard courts the United States, Europe, and Dubai. Players that like the red dirt flock to the southern hemisphere in search of wins and rankings points that can better position them for the upcoming Master Series events of Indian Wells and Miami. Any chance a clay court specialist can get on their favorite surface can only help him.

While there are only three top 20 players present in the draw, the field includes numerous clay courters that can find success. Rafael Nadal is the favorite and the top seed. It will be interesting to see if he is fully recovered from all that ailed him in 2014. Because of a lack of match play, Nadal did not consider himself a contender in Australia, but has declared himself physically ready to defend his title in Rio.

For the full draw, click here.

Predictions

No.1 seed Rafael Nadal’s Quarter

The draw did not do Nadal any favors. His quarter features many dangerous unseeded players who specialize on the red dirt. He opens against world No.63 and very capable Thomaz Bellucci. On the other side, recent ATP Sao Paulo winner Pablo Cuevas faces off against the dangerous Nicolas Almagro. Albert Montanes lurks in this section as well.

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Prediction: Nadal

No.4 seed Fabio Fognini’s Quarter

Fognini is impossible to predict. At times he displays tremendous feel and can cause trouble for any player. Other times, he looks like he doesn’t even care if he loses the match. He starts with up-and-coming Czech Jiri Vesely. Fognini’s inconsistency leaves this quarter wide open. Those that could take advantage are Pablo Andujar, Federico Delbonis, or No.8 seed Martin Klizan.

Prediction: Andujar

No. 3 seed Tommy Robredo’s Quarter

The biggest obstacles to Robredo will be Austrian Andreas Haider-Maurer and the fifth seeded Argentine Leonardo Mayer. Hometown favorite Joao Souza has taken a wild card into the event and could use the crowd support to make some noise of his own.

Prediction: Robredo

No.2 seed David Ferrer’s Quarter

No.7 seed Santiago Giraldo drew a tough first round match in veteran Juan Monaco. An upset there could easily happen. Other hopefuls in this section include Jarkko Nieminen and Thiemo de Bakker. Ferrer’s gutsy style is most evident on clay. He is a step above everyone in this field except the King of Clay himself.

Semifinals: Nadal over Andujar, Ferrer over Robredo

Considering this field, it would be a major upset if the top two seeds did not meet in the finals. On any surface, they would be heavily favored, but only clay, it’s as close as sports can come to a given.

Finals: Ferrer over Nadal

In his Australian Open loss to Berdych, Nadal did not look himself, He was out of sorts physically and his movement suffered. While the clay courts should be good medicine, he will not yet be back to old form. In contrast, Ferrer looked great in Australia. He was simply out-Ferrered by Nishikori on a surface that favored the man from Japan. Always the bridesmaid, Ferrer will grind out this victory against a Nadal who may not quite be in perfect form.

Next: ATP Marseille: Preview & Predictions

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