WTA Charleston: Final Prediction

WTA Charleston: Final Prediction- Kerber vs Keys

(Rank/Seed)

The final of the Family Circle Cup in Charleston is set! (16/5) Angelique Kerber, of Germany will play American, (20/7) Madison Keys as I predicted! Now, let’s analyse who I think will win the oldest women’s only event on the WTA Tour!

Experience: Kerber has played many more finals than her opponent, yet hasn’t got the greatest record in them! Of the 12 finals she’s played, she’s only won 3 of them, all coming on indoor hard courts, last winning in Linz, October 2013. This is her 1st final since Stanford last August, one of 4 finals she failed to win in 2014! Coincidentally, one of those losses came at the hands of Keys, who won her only final thus far, on the grass in Eastbourne last June. Simply because she’s been in this situation many more times, its…Advantage: Kerber

Recent Form: Kerber was struggling coming into this event, winning only 8 of 17 matches and losing before the quarter finals in her last 6 events since January! Though Keys also failed to make an impression in Indian Wells or Miami, she had a sensational semi final breakthrough at the Australian Open, beating Petra Kvitova and Venus Williams before going down to Serena Williams. Advantage: Keys

Route Through: Kerber’s improved as the week’s gone on, despite struggles against Evgeniya Rodina and Irina Camelia Begu. In the semis, she beat her compatriot and reigning champion, (11/3) Andrea Petkovic 64 64, making some seemingly impossible gets to frustrate Petkovic in a compelling baseline battle of attrition. Keys has been in cruise control all week, dropping only 14 games in 4 matches. Her toughest match came in the semis when she beat qualifier, Lucie Hradecka 61 64; the 1st player to take 4 games off of Keys in a set this week! Then again, she hasn’t played anyone ranked higher than 66 in the world this week, so this is no doubt a big step up! Advantage: Keys

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Past Results in Charleston: In her only previous appearance here in 2010, Kerber lost in the 3rd round to Daniela Hantuchova, but she was then ranked 64 in the world! Kerber will be hoping to continue a strong recent trend of German success at this event, with Sabine Lisicki winning in 2009 and Andrea Petkovic last year. Keys enjoyed a run to the quarters here in 2013 when she was ranked 77 in the world, losing to Venus Williams. Like former American champions before her, such as the Williams sisters and Jennifer Capriati, Keys will have the crowd support behind her. Advantage: Keys

Head to Head: Kerber has the slight advantage with a 2-1 head to head lead. Both of her wins have been in straight sets on hard courts in Australia, the last coming just over a year ago in Sydney. As previously mentioned, Keys won their last meeting in Eastbourne, winning 63 36 75! So it’s clear that Keys has struggled against Kerber in the past. Advantage: Kerber

In this match, Keys will be the overwhelming aggressor. The key (pun not intended!) for her will be managing the unforced error count and picking the right ball to go for. On this surface, her serve wont deliver as many cheap points as it did on the grass and Kerber has been retrieving great all week, so Keys will have to be prepared to make that extra shot! For Kerber, it’s going to be important for her not to sit back and rely on her defence too much, as often happens when she gets nervous. Though it might frustrate Keys for a time, I can’t see her winning the match if she plays the human backboard all day long. She has a great, lefty forehand which she must use to take the initiative in the rallies whenever she can and expose Madison’s comparatively stiff movement.

Overall, Keys probably has a slight advantage in this match. She’s playing great, has the crowd on her side and has beaten Kerber in a final before. In contrast, despite being a former top 5 player, Kerber gets notoriously nervous in finals and tends to play far more passively than she’s done up until that point. For this reason, I predict that Keys will dominate the match on her terms and eventually puncture Kerber’s defences.

WTA Charleston: Final Prediction- Madison Keys

Next: WTA Charleston: Semi Final Predictions

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