What can Rafael Nadal achieve on the clay?

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What can Rafael Nadal achieve on the clay?

Rafael Nadal has suffered another setback in his quest to find his top form in Barcelona. It is a loss which begs the question as to what the Spaniard can realistically hope to achieve on the clay this year. As his campaign for a 10th French Open title edges closer, there is more doubt than ever surrounding his chances.

All these pieces will come together nicely for Nadal if he can get some wins in the next month

Clearly Nadal has the potential to win every match on clay for the remainder of the season. Past results are no guarantee of future success, but his dominance on the surface for the last decade show that he can be unbeatable if everything clicks into gear.

The concern is that the world number 4 hasn’t hit top gear for quite a while. Injuries plagued his 2014 season, which masked a decline in confidence, that now Nadal has conceded himself, explains a lot. Belief seems to be the missing piece of the puzzle.

His Spaniard has always relied on not only believing in himself, but also transferring that across the net. Opponents could be up a break or serving for the match but would still look over the net to see Nadal bouncing on his toes, most often still favourite to win.

Bidding for 10th French Open

This tricky patch, something that most athletes go through in their career, will be paved over entirely if Rafa can lift his 10th French Open title in May. He will know this more than anyone and will be looking to peak in Paris. Early losses in other events can be excused, an early loss at the French would amount to a crisis.

An interesting sub plot to the coming Masters events on the red dirt does add more significance than usual for Nadal. His position in the top four is perilous, so much so that he dropped down to world number 5 a couple of weeks ago, usurped by Kei Nishikori.

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If Nadal were to be seeded outside of the top four for the French Open, he faces a much more difficult task. It could mean meeting Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer in the quarter finals. It could also mean a Wawrinka, Murray, Federer, Djokovic run in for the title.

All these pieces will come together nicely for Nadal if he can get some wins in the next month. His confidence will return and his ranking will settle inside the top four, allowing him to sweat a little less over the French Open draw.

In contrast a few more losses will pile on the pressure and with all the big names returning to action for the coming Masters in Madrid and Rome, all eyes will be on the Spaniard to see where he is at. Could this be the first time in a decade that Nadal isn’t favourite heading into Roland Garros?

Next: Will Stan Wawrinka be a one slam wonder?

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