WTA Madrid: Final Prediction

WTA Madrid: Final Prediction- Petra Kvitova vs Svetlana Kuznetsova

(Rank/Seed)

The final of the Mutua Madrid Open has been decided and it’s by no means what I, nor for that matter what most people would have predicted. (4/4) Petra Kvitova, from the Czech Republic will face Russian, (29/-) Svetlana Kuznetsova, after both players completed sensational upsets against (1/1) Serena Williams and (3/3) Maria Sharapova respectively in the semi finals! This continues a recurring theme throughout the year, which has seen many big finals, such as Sydney, Dubai, Indian Wells, Miami and Stuttgart contested between a top 5 player and a surprise package! Here is my break down of the upcoming final and my prediction as to who I think will win.

Experience: Both players are 2 time Grand Slam champions and former world number 2s, so neither will shy away from this big match experience. However, Petra has a far better win loss ratio in finals, winning 15 of the 20 finals she’s contested, compared to Svetlana who has won 14 of 34 finals. Petra is also more well versed in winning titles recently, considering she’s already won a title this year and claimed 3 last season, including Wimbledon. Kuznetsova doesn’t win that much silverware these days, having not won a title since last summer in Washington DC, nor even appeared in a final this big since winning Beijing in 2009! In contrast, Svetlana has the edge when it comes to clay, having won 3 titles on the surface, including the 2009 French Open, compared to Petra who has won only 1, which happened to be here in Madrid. Only because Petra has played many more big finals recently, it’s…Advantage: Kvitova

Recent Form: Kvitova started the year well with a title run in Sydney but fell off the pace afterwards, losing earlier than expected in Melbourne, Dubai and Doha. She then skipped Indian Wells and Miami due to exhaustion before returning for the Fed Cup weekend, where she won 2 matches to assist the Czechs into the final later this year. However, her 1st match on clay went rather disastrously as she was beaten in straight sets by Madison Brengle in Stuttgart.

Svetlana had been playing woefully up until this point, winning only 6 of 15 matches coming into this event without reaching so much as a quarter final! Her opening matches on clay were hardly anything to write home about either, as she went 1-1 in the Fed Cup and lost in the 1st round last week in Prague to 98th ranked Shuai Zhang in straight sets! Compared to that, Kvitova’s year doesn’t seem so bad, so it’s…Advantage: Kvitova

Route Through: Kvitova has had by far the easier run of the two. After coming through two early 3 setters, Kvitova has hit her stride. She demolished a flat footed Serena Williams 62 63 in the semis, bludgeoning her opponent’s second serve time and time again. Despite having never beaten Williams in 5 previous meetings, Kvitova was determined to break a whole host of winning streaks Williams had compiled lately. These included Serena’s 19 match winning streak in Madrid, her 27 match winning streak on the tour (unbeaten this year) and her 50 match winning streak at Premier Mandatory level events, which stretched back to 2012!

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In contrast, Kuznetsova has lived on the edge all week. Despite a great 1st round showing when she beat the number 2 ranked Russian, (8/8) Ekaterina Makarova for the loss of only 3 games, she was then forced to survive 3 nail biters to reach the semis. This involved her edging Garbine Muguruza, Samantha Stosur and (14/13) Lucie Safarova in either a 75 or 76 3rd set, saving 2 match points in the latter. However, Kuznetsova continued to make a mockery of the national rankings in beating the number one Russian and defending champion, Maria Sharapova, 62 64. Kuznetsova was calm and collected throughout, fending off the only break point she faced. Admittedly, Maria had a terrible day, filled with unforced errors and Williams-like sluggish movement! Perhaps she didn’t like the ridiculous 11 am start?! Nonetheless, it was Svetlana’s 1st win over her compatriot since Indian Wells 2008! Still, as Kvitova is the fresher of the two, it’s…Advantage: Kvitova

Past Results in Madrid: Madrid is the one clay court event where Kvitova has thrived, no doubt due to the fast courts in the high altitude. Back in 2011, Petra broke into the top 10 off the back of winning Madrid, which then ranked as her biggest title. En route, she ousted 3 top 10 players and all in straight sets; then ranked number 3, Vera Zvonareva, number 6, Li Na and number 5, Victoria Azarenka. Last year, she had another decent showing in reaching the semis, before losing to Simona Halep.

In complete contrast, Madrid is the only high profile red clay court event in which Kuznetsova has never had any success! Believe it or not, Kuznetsova lost her first 4 matches here, at best reaching the 3rd round in 2013! Last year, she squandered 4 match points in going out to Agnieszska Radwanska in a 3rd set tiebreak in the 2nd round. As Kvitova seems to love it here, it’s…Advantage: Kvitova

Head to Head: Petra has a commanding 3-1 lead in this regard, but 3 of their 4 meetings have gone to 3 sets. Kuznetsova won their last and only clay court meeting in the 3rd round of the French Open last year. The score line was incredibly close, with Svetlana edging it 67(7) 61 97, but only, if my memory serves me correctly, after Kvitova had failed on more than one occasion to serve it out. In this match, Kvitova will look to keep the points short and decisive as she did against Williams. She can ill afford the match to become a physical contest, even if Petra looks fitter than ever! Kuznetsova will hope to do as she did against Sharapova in doing nothing too special, instead simply looking to carve the openings and get Kvitova on the move. If she can do this, there is no reason why she shouldn’t be able to win as I don’t doubt her superior clay court movement or fitness for a second, even if she’s been pushed close all week! As I feel Svetlana is tactically sounder on clay and makes fewer errors, it’s…Advantage: Kuznetsova.

As you can see, Kvitova has the advantage in all but one department. If Petra can play at a level anything like that she showed in the semis, she should prove far too tough for Kuznetsova, as it was Petra’s stellar play which made the win against Williams as decisive as it was. In contrast, I felt that Svetlana took advantage of a bad day on Sharapova’s part and would be hard pressed to find any answer to the kind of Kvitova that took out Serena. Then again, if Kvitova has an off day, which could well happen considering her erratic tendencies, Kuznetsova might well seize this golden opportunity, that is, if her nerve holds out.

WTA Madrid Final Prediction- Petra Kvitova

Next: WTA Madrid: Semi Final Prediction

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