WTA Rome: Semi Final Prediction

WTA Rome: M. Sharapova vs D. Gavrilova & S. Halep vs C. S. Navarro

The semi finals are set at the Italian Open. The week has seen a few rather surprising developments! The two time reigning champion, (1/1) Serena Williams withdrew before the 3rd round due to an elbow injury and 3 qualifiers reached the quarter finals of a Premier event for the 1st time since 2003! At the beginning of the week, I predicted that Carla Suarez Navarro would reach this stage and Victoria Azarenka fell just short, but I ultimately underestimated the top players, Simona Halep and Maria Sharapova. As for the qualifier Daria Gavrilova, I don’t believe anyone in the world would have predicted her place in the semis! Here are my predictions as to who will reach the final on Sunday.

(Rank/Seed)

(3/3) Maria Sharapova vs (78/Q) Daria Gavrilova

Maria appears to have recovered from her recent dip in form, backing up her semi final showing in Madrid last week with an equally good showing here. The former 2 time champion has improved throughout the week and hasn’t yet dropped a set, including beating Victoria Azarenka 63 62 in the quarters. Maria continued her unbeaten record against the Belarusian in 4 meetings on clay, often making her opponent look off the pace due to her crisp ball striking.

In contrast, Daria’s route through to her 1st WTA semi final has been torturous! She has been forced to survive three 3 setters in the 6 matches she’s played thus far during the qualifying and main draw, the closest coming against (7/7) Ana Ivanovic in the 2nd round. Gavrilova out-steadied Ivanovic before a packed house on the atmospheric Pietrangeli court 57 76(2) 76(7), winning on her 8th match point in over 3 hours, amazingly never facing a match point against her! It was Ana’s 7th pre-quarterfinal loss in 9 tournaments this year as her top 10 place becomes increasingly at risk. Daria impressively backed up the upset with straight sets wins against in form Timea Bacsinszky and the qualifier, Christina McHale.

Surprisingly, Daria has won her only previous meeting with Maria! The win came just over a month ago on the hard courts in Miami, where Daria won 76(4) 63 in the 2nd round for Maria’s worst exit at the event since 2003! In that match, Maria struggled to apply the finishing touches in the longer rallies whilst Daria showed plenty of attitude and mixed up the play to great effect. I imagine Daria will be full of confidence coming into this match and wont be afraid to show it. However, I think that Maria wont underestimate her opponent this time around and will be out to make an impact and avenge her earlier defeat. Prediction: Maria Sharapova

More from WTA

(2/2) Simona Halep vs (10/10) Carla Suarez Navarro

Simona admitted that she was conscious of defending ranking points and didn’t feel physically fit when she was stunned by Alize Cornet in her opener in Madrid last week. Now she has neither of those problems to contend with, Simona has been flying high in Rome and has dropped only 7 games in 3 matches! The champion of 1999, (16/14) Venus Williams, erred repeatedly in going out 62 61 in the 3rd round and Simona’s compatriot, qualifier Alexandra Dulgheru, suffered a thrashing 61 60 defeat in the quarters!

Carla really has been one of the most remarkably consistent players this year, having reached her 10th quarter final of the year here in 11 tournaments played! In the 3rd round, she saved a match point to edge (6/6) Eugenie Bouchard 67(2) 75 76(7), after the Canadian had served for the match 3 times; at 5-4 in the 2nd set and 5-4 and 6-5 in the 3rd! Still, it was a breakthrough week for Bouchard, as she ended her 6 match losing streak in winning her 1st match since March against Zarina Diyas in the 2nd round! In the quarters, Carla defeated last week’s Madrid champion, (4/4) Petra Kvitova 63 62 for her 4th successive win in their personal head to head and a 3rd of the year! Whenever Petra carved an opening, it seemed that Carla had an answer, none more so than the last 2 points of the match which saw Carla execute a perfect backhand drop volley and passing shot to complete the ‘upset.’

Halep has a slight 5-4 advantage in the head to head, winning their last 3 meetings stretching back to 2013. Their last meeting came in March in the quarters of Indian Wells, where Simona battled through a scrappy encounter 57 61 61. However, Carla has won all 3 of their clay court meetings, though they haven’t played on the surface since the French Open 2013! I’d imagine that this match will be the toughest Simona has faced all week, with plenty of long and gruelling rallies but because she has a bigger serve and more weaponry to hit through the court, I expect Halep to come through this one. Prediction: Simona Halep

Next: WTA Rome: Preview & Predictions

More from Lob and Smash

Home/WTA