WTA Rome: Final Prediction

WTA Rome: Final Prediction- Maria Sharapova vs Carla Suarez Navarro

(Rank/Seed)

The final of the 2015 Italian Open will be played a little later on today and will feature the Russian, (3/3) Maria Sharapova and the Spaniard, (10/10) Carla Suarez Navarro! Though I predicted Maria’s progression into the final, I didn’t count on Carla upsetting yet another higher ranked player in (2/2) Simona Halep, albeit 75 in the 3rd set! Here’s my breakdown of the final and my prediction as to who will win!

Experience: The difference between the two players in this category is huge! Maria has won 34 of the 57 finals she’s contested, including 5 Grand Slams and 10 titles on clay! In contrast, Carla has won only 1 of the 8 finals she’s played, albeit a clay court success in Portugal last spring. It’s obvious that it’s…

Advantage: Sharapova

Recent Form: Maria started the year brilliantly in winning Brisbane and reaching the Australian Open final. However, after being forced to withdraw midway through Acapulco due to a stomach illness, Maria consequently struggled to regain her form. She lost 3 successive matches for the 1st time since 2003 in going out early in Indian Wells, Miami and Stuttgart, a leg injury exacerbating the issue. Though she broke the rot in reaching the semis of Madrid, her loss to Svetlana Kuznetsova was hardly inspiring.

Carla is having her best season to date, becoming the 3rd Spanish woman to crack the top 10! By virtue of her run here, she should crack the top 8 next week too! In 10 tournaments played this year, Carla has only failed to reach the quarters once and has beaten 9 top 10 players en route! After reaching the biggest final of her career in Miami, she has posted consistent results on the clay, only losing to top players in Caroline Wozniacki and Serena Williams in the quarters of Stuttgart and Madrid respectively.

Advantage: Suarez Navarro

Route Through: Maria has had a much easier run, having not yet dropped a set or faced a seeded opponent. After outclassing Victoria Azarenka in the quarters, she was forced to avenge her 2nd round Miami defeat at the hands of the qualifier, Daria Gavrilova in the semis. After edging a tough 1st set 75, which saw just the one break of serve, Maria ran away with 5 successive games to take the second 63.

Carla has had a much tougher route, dropping 3 sets in the 5 matches she’s played. After saving a match point in the 3rd round to edge (6/6) Eugenie Bouchard in a 3rd set tiebreak, she was calm and collected in beating last week’s Madrid champion, (4/4) Petra Kvitova in the quarters. Amazingly, she then proceeded to beat a 3rd straight ‘top tenner’ in outlasting (2/2) Simona Halep 26 63 75! In a match riddled with service breaks, Carla ultimately turned the contest into a clay court struggle, playing steadier from the baseline before opening the angles at any opportunity to run Halep ragged. In contrast, Halep lost sight of the winning, aggressive strategy she’d employed in the 1st set and began to miss sitters! With her confidence in the forecourt gone and her temper simmering, she became inclined to sit back and play Carla’s game of long rallies and angles, which she ultimately couldn’t sustain as her forehand leaked errors. As Carla will no doubt be physically exhausted after this epic, it’s…

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Advantage: Sharapova

Past Results in Rome: Maria loves this city, winning the title in 2011 and defending it in 2012! Last year, Maria lost in the 3rd round here to Ana Ivanovic for her only defeat of the clay court season, though by that time she was fatigued having already won Stuttgart and Madrid! Importantly for her, title winning runs here have been followed by deep showings at the French Open, as she went on to reach the semis in 2011 and finally claimed the French Open for the 1st time in 2012!

Carla had never made it beyond the quarters here until now, losing in 2013 to Serena Williams and 2014 to Ana Ivanovic. If she wins the title today, she’ll be the first Spanish woman to do so since Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez in 2010.

Advantage: Sharapova

Head to Head: Maria has a 3-1 advantage, winning their last meeting 61 63 in the quarters of Brisbane back in January. Carla’s only victory came on the hard courts of Montreal last summer, where she out-steadied a ragged Sharapova 62 in the 3rd set of their 3rd round clash. They’ve never played on clay.

It’s clear that Maria will be the aggressor, going for bigger, flatter shots on the serve and groundstrokes. Carla will look to absorb this pressure and bide her time for an opening, looking then to exploit the angle and get Sharapova on the move. This is the only chance Carla has of winning this match, as otherwise she will find herself bullied into the backcourt where she can make little impact. As the match is on Maria’s racket, it’s…

Advantage: Sharapova

It’s clear that Sharapova has a big advantage in this match, winning 4 of the 5 categories. Maria is a multiple Grand Slam champion who relishes the opportunity to play big finals such as this. She raises her game and mental intensity to fever pitch, making her practically unbeatable at this stage of an event, unless Serena Williams is standing on the other side of the court! In contrast, Carla is only just beginning to break into the big time and still seems to struggle with on court inhibitions. It was clear by her shallow breathing and rash unforced errors in the final of Miami that she was completely overwhelmed by the occasion as well as her opponent. Perhaps she’ll use that bad experience and her great run this week to finally overcome her big match nerves and complete a 4th successive upset! If Maria Sharapova plays her best however, I can only see one outcome!

WTA Rome: Final Prediction- Maria Sharapova

Next: WTA Rome: Semi Final Predictions

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