WTA Birmingham: Final Prediction

WTA Birmingham: Who will win their first grass court title?

(Rank/Seed)

The final at the AEGON Classic has been decided. As I predicted, (10/4) Angelique Kerber of Germany will face (12/6) Karolina Pliskova of the Czech Republic. Both players are looking to win their first grass court title, with a place in the top 10 on the line. If Pliskova wins, she will replace Kerber in the top 10 to crack into the elite for the first time.

Here is my prediction as to who will take home the title.

Experience: Kerber has won five of the fourteen finals she’s contested but has lost both of her previous grass court finals at Eastbourne in 2012 and 2014. Once a staple part of the top 10, she’s also reached the semis at Wimbledon and the US Open.

Pliskova has won four of the nine finals she’s contested and has never played a final on grass. She has also never won a Premier level title like this before and believe it or not, had never even won back to back matches on this surface before this week.

Though both players have losing ratios in finals, Kerber’s had more experience in bigger matches and on grass.

Advantage: Kerber

Recent Form: Kerber lost her way and her top 10 place earlier this year by losing before the quarters in six successive events. However, switching back to her old coach, Torben Beltz and the clay rejuvenated her as she won back to back Premier level titles in Charleston and Stuttgart. Though the French Open ended disappointingly in the third round, she has been back at her best on what is arguably her best surface.

Pliskova has gone from strength to strength this season in cracking the top 20. The highlights of the year to date include a title win at home in Prague and runs to Premier level finals in Sydney and Dubai. Aside from winning Prague, her clay court season was uneventful and she is clearly enjoying being back on a quicker surface.

Both players have bounced back from a poor French Open, but Pliskova has the wind in her sails on what is already turning out to be her breakthrough year.

Advantage: Pliskova

Route through: Kerber struggled in three sets during her opening match against grass court specialist, Tsvetana Pironkova. Having adjusted to the surface though, Kerber hasn’t dropped a set since. This has included wins against former champions here in (29/15) Jelena Jankovic and (19/8) Sabine Lisicki. In the semis, Kerber nullified Lisicki’s serving power expertly in winning 63 63 to remain unbeaten against her compatriot.

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Pliskova also had a battle in her opener against Britain’s Johanna Konta. Like Kerber, she hasn’t dropped a set since, accounting for (9/3) Carla Suarez Navarro in the quarters and giant killer, Kristina Mladenovic in the semis. In a rain interrupted semi final, Karolina kept cool despite trailing 3-6 in the second set tiebreak before coming through 62 76(6).

As both players have had such similar routes through, there’s no clear favourite in this department.

Advantage: Deuce

Past Results in Birmingham: Kerber hasn’t played this event in five years, losing at best in the third round in 2007 and 2010. She’s no doubt been attracted back to this event due to its recently acquired Premier status and its positioning midway through the grass court swing.

Pliskova had failed to win either of her previous two matches at this event in 2013 and 2014.

As this is the first time either player has played well here, no one has an advantage.

Advantage: Deuce

Head to Head: The pair are tied at 2-2, with all of their meetings being decided in straight sets. Pliskova has won their last two, the latest coming at the beginning of this year in the semis of Sydney, 63 62. However, the two have never played on grass or in a final before.

As Pliskova has won their latest meetings easily, she’ll feel confident coming into this one.

Advantage: Pliskova

Overall, Pliskova has a slight advantage coming into this match. She will certainly be dictating the match with her bigger serve and groundstrokes. Her calm, almost nonchalant manner will also put her in good stead to win this final where there is so much at stake.

Kerber should make her big match experience count for something, but has a habit of struggling in finals. Even in the two tournaments she’s won this year, she was forced to recover from third set deficits before winning 75. Her match against Lisicki should prepare her well for this match though as the German has an even bigger serve.

I feel that Pliskova wont make the same amount of errors as Lisicki did when Kerber retrieves that extra ball. Recalling that match in Sydney, I distinctly remember Pliskova almost swatting the ball for a winner time and time again. Kerber has to serve well, as she’s done all week, but unfortunately for her, I feel she’ll be hit off the court and miss out on her first grass court title once again.

WTA Birmingham: Final Prediction- Karolina Pliskova

Next: WTA Birmingham: Semi Final Predictions

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