Wimbledon 2015 – Who Is The Favourite?

Wimbledon 2015 – Who Is The Favourite?

Wimbledon is but a week away now, and it is very clear that there are two out and out favourites going into this year’s tournament.

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are the men that look by far the most likely candidates to lift the trophy on finals day at the All England Club, but who is the favourite out of these two?

Here are my thoughts on the respective chances of Djokovic and Murray going into the third Grand Slam of the year.

Novak Djokovic

The world number one is a two-time winner on the Wimbledon grass, and currently occupies the title of defending champion.

However, his mood going into the fortnight in London won’t be anywhere near as rosy as it could have been.

The Serbian had an excellent chance earlier this month to collect a long-awaited French Open title and complete his personal career Slam. He had defeated nine-time champion Rafael Nadal in straight sets along the way, and had Stanislas Wawrinka standing in his way in the final – a man who he has a dominant head-to-head record over.

However, Djokovic caught Wawrinka on a good day – a very good day in fact. The Swiss, trailing by a set, started to hit ridiculous winners from anywhere and everywhere on the court and he kept up this level for the entire match to claim his second major crown and condemn his opponent to perhaps his most bitter Roland Garros final loss.

That defeat will take a long time to disappear out of the mind of Novak Djokovic, and this mental hangover could have a negative impact on his quest to defend his crown.

However, while the manner of the defeat was disappointing, the fact remains that Djokovic is still comfortably the best player in the world. One loss to a lower ranked player who he was expected to beat does not change that.

The number one seed has won practically every tournament he has entered over the course of the last seven months. A final defeat to a player in the form of his life is not exactly cause for a postmortem of the Serbian’s game.

Additionally, while it could be argued that the loss in Paris could hang over Djokovic, it could also be stated that the pressure on him at Wimbledon will be nowhere near as intense as it was in France, where he was attempting to do something he had never done before in his quest for personal perfection.

This time around he is playing at an event he has won before, on more than one occasion, in front of a crowd and group of pundits that are not following his every footstep and religiously charting his progress throughout the competition.

This lack of pressure, combined with his overall form, is good enough reason to say that Djokovic has every chance of claiming his third Wimbledon title in just under three weeks time.

Another factor that could work in his favour is that his recent record over Andy Murray, who he could well face in the final, is stacked heavily in his favour.

Djokovic has won eight of the last eight meetings between the two, and eleven of the past twelve. Going into a Grand Slam final, that psychological advantage must surely count for something for the Serbian?

The margins at this level are minimal, and having a mental stranglehold in a particular match-up is a nice luxury to have going into the fierce battle of a Grand Slam clash.

Andy Murray

Novak Djokovic is currently the best player in the world, but Andy Murray is the in-form man coming into Wimbledon.

While Djokovic has had no grass court practice since the Roland Garros final, Murray cruised to yet another Queens title at the weekend, dropping just one set on his way to a fourth crown at the Masters 500 event.

Winning a Masters 500 event is hardly cause for hopes and expectations to be raised significantly, but it was more the manner in which the Brit romped to victory that caught the eye.

In the latter stages of the tournament, the man from Dunblane displayed incredible mental fortitude, defensive resilience and match sharpness to get the better of a trio of big servers with big games to match.

Gilles Muller, once Murray started to get a read on his serve, saw his weapons nullified, while Victor Troicki never looked likely to get any joy from an opponent that seems even more solid from the back of the court than usual, if that is at all possible.

The final was supposed to present the world number three with a different challenge. Kevin Anderson had been remarkably impressive on his way through to the Sunday showdown, combining a seemingly unbreakable serve with a consistent and steady game from the back of the court.

No matter for Murray, though, as he made a very dangerous opponent look distinctly ordinary in his straight sets win in the final.

This form on the grass is sure to see the 28-year-old go into his home Slam full of confidence.

Another plus point for Murray is that he goes into this year’s tournament in a more settled state of mind than he did last year. In 2014, the Scot had back issues that were hampering his movement significantly, and he had to deal with the added pressure of being the defending champion at an event that the home crowd are always hopeful and expectant of him winning.

All this culminated in a desperately disappointing straight sets loss to youngster Grigor Dimitrov in the quarter-finals as Murray’s form dipped at the wrong time.

This time around, however, following his wedding and with a clean bill of health, the 2013 winner goes into the All England Club with a stable mentality and confidence flowing through his veins.

Finally, who could underestimate the power of a partisan crowd? Murray is adored at Wimbledon, where the nation stands still for two weeks to follow his progress and will him on the entire way.

In the final against Djokovic two years ago, the 2012 Olympic gold medalist was struggling to close the match out, wasting match point after match point in the boiling sun against a player known for his abilities to come back against all the odds.

But for the backing of the home crowd, there is every chance that Murray would have thrown that final away, so the impact that the supporters inside Centre Court can have on Murray’s chances is undeniably huge should they be called upon.

The two-time Slam winner will have to try and find a way to defeat a man who seemingly has his number (should they meet) under the huge pressure of a latter stage Slam match, but such is the form he is in and such is the optimism he has coming into the competition, you wouldn’t bet against him doing exactly that.

Overall Conclusion

Novak Djokovic is undeniably more than able to win Wimbledon for a third time in 2015, but the form that Andy Murray is showing, combined with the fact that he is more settled than ever on the court means he just about manages to go in as the favourite for this observer.

The world number one can drop off a couple of percent if the crowd start to get behind his opponent, which is an inevitability should he face Murray. If his game were to drop a level or two, it is unlikely that the Scot would not be on hand to punish him for it.

So, Andy Murray is the favourite for Wimbledon, then. If my recent predictions for Queens are anything to by, however, it would be wise not to take my word for it.