WTA Bastad/Bucharest: Final Prediction

WTA Bastad/Bucharest: Back to the clay for the time being!

(Rank/Seed)

The first week after Wimbledon is often a quiet one as the majority of the top players begin their mid-season, three week break. However, the tour remains in Europe during this time for those who wish to participate in smaller International level events. This week, the tour stopped on the clay courts in Bastad, Sweden and Bucharest, Romania.

In Bastad, (52/4) Mona Barthel will face (72/7) Johanna Larsson and in Bucharest, (20/1) Sara Errani will face (60/7) Anna Karolina Schmiedlova.

Here are my predictions as to who will win the titles.

Mona Barthel vs Johanna Larsson

Barthel is the defending champion in Bastad, though came in on a nine match losing streak stretching back to April. Low on confidence, the German flirted with an early exit once again before overcoming Kiki Bertens in three sets during the 1st round. Since breaking her losing run, the 25 year old has looked more like her former ranking of 23 in progressing through to her first final in a year without dropping a set since.

Larsson is a clay court specialist who seems to enjoy playing before her home crowd. The Swede was the losing finalist here to Polona Hercog in 2011 and Serena Williams in 2012. Though it’s been a lean year on the whole, Larsson has peaked on clay, reaching the finals of an ITF event in Versmold last week and a semi final earlier in the year in Rio de Janeiro. The 26 year old hasn’t yet dropped a set this week, at best accounting for third seed, Barbora Zahlavova Strycova in the quarter finals.

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Barthel hasn’t lost to Larsson in any of their three previous meetings, winning them all in straight sets. However, these all came on hard courts and they haven’t played since 2013. Barthel has more title winning experience, having won three of her four previous finals whilst Larsson has lost all three finals she’s ever played.

Though Barthel has clean, effortless groundstrokes, she has a tendency to suddenly lose control and make crazy unforced errors. On the clay, Larsson will have more time to retrieve shots and use her heavy serve and forehand to open up the angles. With the crowd on her side, it should be third time lucky.

Bastad Final Prediction: Johanna Larsson

Sara Errani vs Anna Karolina Schmiedlova

Errani wishes there was more clay court tennis and has admitted that a drop in the rankings has enabled her to play more smaller clay court events, such as Bucharest. Once again, the Italian has had her best results on the slow stuff this year, winning Rio de Janeiro and reaching the quarter finals at the French Open. The former number 5 has made a fine debut here as the top seed. The 28 year old has lost just the one set, coming from behind to out-rally in-form Monica Niculescu 57 61 62 in the semi finals.

Schmiedlova is having a career defining season. This is the Slovak’s third final of the year, having won the title indoors in Katowice as well as losing to Errani in Rio de Janeiro. Perhaps best known for beating Venus Williams at the 2014 French Open, Schmiedlova lost in the first round here last year. However, the 20 year old has erased those bad memories in dropping only seventeen games in four matches to reach the final this time around, accounting for former two time champion, Polona Hercog in the semi finals.

Errani won her only previous meeting with Schmiedlova as already mentioned in Rio. After a tough first set, Errani ran away with it 76(2) 61. Though Schmiedlova has a modest 1-1 win-loss record in career finals, Errani has won eight of the seventeen finals she’s played, seven titles of which have been at International level clay court events!

Both players made the French Open final in 2012, though Schmiedlova was in the Junior final. I think Errani’s consistency, court coverage and tenacity will prove too good against a promising youngster with bigger weapons but less experience.

Bucharest Final Prediction: Sara Errani

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