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Women’s Storylines of the US Open Series

By Clinton Trueman

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Aug 28, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Venus Williams (USA) returns a shot to Jie Zheng (CHN) on Armstrong Stadium on day three of the 2013 US Open at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Who will obtain seedings for the US Open?

In the lead up to the final grand slam for 2015, all eyes will be on the players lurking around the top-4, top-8, top-16 and top-32 marks.

Why? These rankings dictate where players will be placed in the US Open draw. For example, a player with a top 16 seed will not be scheduled to play another top 16 seed until at least the fourth round. The same goes for top-8 seeds and the quarterfinals, and so forth. This is particularly important for any women wishing to venture deep into the draw, which would be made all the more difficult by an early matchup against a certain American.

Here’s a roundup of each of the seeding cutoffs:

Top-4 Seeds.

Serena and Sharapova are essentially guaranteed the top 2 seeds in New York.

The other two top-4 seeds will almost definitely be comprised of Petra Kvitova, Simona Halep or Caroline Wozniacki. The top-4 seed will be imperative for any of these women as it ensures that they won’t meet Serena until at least the semifinals.

Halep has very few points to defend in the next few weeks, so she’s a safe bet for no. 3. However, Kvitova won New Haven last year, and Wozniacki performed well in Cincinnati and Canada last year, so they both have a large number of points to defend. Either player who doesn’t get the no-4 seed will essentially be guaranteed no-5.

For the sake of year-long consistency, I’ll go with Kvitova as no-4.

Top-8 Seeds.

With Ana Ivanovic defending a Cincinnati finals appearance from last year, and Aga Radwanska defending a Canada title, the final three spots of the top-8 could really go to anyone in the top 14.

Safarova has few points to defend, as do Muguruza, Bacsinszky and Pliskova.

Makarova and Suarez Navarro are defending semifinal and quarterfinal appearances in Canada, respectively.

Kerber is defending a finals appearance in Stanford.

If any of these women go on a title run in Stanford, Cincinnati or Canada, they could very well earn a top-8 seed.

At the moment, I’ll go with Wozniacki, Safarova, Muguruza and Pliskova.

Top-16 Seeds.

The remainder of the top 14 who don’t obtain top-8 seeds are essentially ensured a top-16 seed. As for the remaining two slots:

This is where things get complicated for Venus Williams. Barely holding onto her no. 15 ranking, Venus faces the task of defending a finals appearance in Canada. Failing to do so would see her drop to around no. 23.

There are a number of women who could take the final two slots of the top-16 in New York, but the woman who perhaps needs it the most is Vika. She’s capable of a title run at one of the upcoming Premier events, and doing so would secure her a top-16 seeding.

Other contenders include Petko, Errani, Keys, Svitolina and Bencic.

For the no. 9 to no. 16 seeds, I’ll go with Suarez Navarro, Ivanovic, Kerber, Bacsinszky, Radwanska, Makarova, Vika and Errani. 

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Top-32 Seeds.

So who’s on the verge of a top-32 seeding at the US Open? Here are the top candidates:

Coco Vandeweghe: The Wimbledon quarterfinalist currently sits at no. 32 but has a lot of points to defend from Canada last year.

Zarina Diyas: Currently sits at no. 33 and is consistent enough to ensure a seeding as long as no one around her in the rankings has a strong showing in the next few weeks.

Sloane Stephens: Sits at no. 34. She has to defend third round points from Cincinnati which isn’t out of the question given her newfound consistency.

Carolina Garcia and Kristina Mladenovic: Sit at no. 35-36 and have very few points to defend.

Barbora Strycova: No. 37. She’s struggling to win matches but could get in if the other women here don’t perform well in the next few weeks.

Monica Niculescu: No. 38. She’ll need a strong performance, which is possible if she adapts her strong grass performances to the hard courts.

Daria Gavrilova: No. 40. Very capable of a strong run at a big tournament, which could propel her into the top-32.

Anna Karolina Schmiedlova: No. 41. Doesn’t look like a threat, but she’s been on fire in the last few weeks, claiming a title last week and reaching the semifinal in Bad Gastein (result pending). Can she translate her clay game to the hard courts?

For no. 17-32, I’ll go with Petkovic, Keys, Svitolina, Bencic, Venus, Stosur, Lisicki, Jankovic, Bouchard,  Pennetta, Cornet, Begu, Kuznetsova, Ciorgi, Peng, Diyas

Just missing out (and benefitting if someone *cough* Peng *cough* withdraws): Mladenovic, Garcia, Schmiedlova, Strycova, Stephens, Gavrilova, Niculescu.

Next: US Open Series 2015: Whose Ranking Will Be Affected

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