WTA Beijing: Final Prediction

WTA Beijing: Will Muguruza march over Bacsinszky?

The final has been decided at the 2015 China Open in Beijing.

Garbine Muguruza will play Timea Bacsinszky! Did I predict this? Find out here!

Here’s my prediction as to who will win the title!

(Rank/Seed)

(5/5) Garbine Muguruza vs (17/12) Timea Bacsinszky

Muguruza will be aiming to win her first title of the year having lost in the finals at Wimbledon to Serena Williams and Wuhan to Venus Williams. Up until now, the Spaniard has struggled to claim silverware in her career, winning only one of the four finals she’s contested. That win came at the beginning of 2014 at the International level event in Hobart and she’s lost her last three finals since then.

Despite being forced to retire midway through the final in Wuhan last week due to an ankle injury, Muguruza has shown no ill effects this week in Beijing. In fact, this has been a landmark week for the Spaniard as she not only celebrated her 22nd birthday but also secured her place in the WTA Finals.

It hasn’t been an easy road for Muguruza though, as she was forced to recover from a set behind in the 3rd round against Mirjana Lucic Baroni and in the semi finals against (8/4) Agnieszka Radwanska. For the most part, Muguruza had crushed the Pole’s second serve and had taken advantage of the shorter balls but struggled in the end to put Radwanska away. A 5-1 deciding set lead slipped to 5-4 before Radwanska’s own nerves contributed to some uncharacteristic forehand errors, handing Muguruza a 46 63 64 win, her fourth in as many attempts against the Pole this year.

As Muguruza had failed to win a match in Beijing before, losing in the first round last year to Ekaterina Makarova, she stands to continue rising up the rankings in cracking the top four next week.

Bacsinszky will be appearing in her fourth final of the year having lost in Shenzhen to Simona Halep but winning back to back International level events in Acapulco and Monterrey this spring. Overall, the Swiss has had a much better time in finals than her upcoming opponent, winning three of the five she’s contested in her whole career. However, unlike Muguruza, Bacsinszky has never contested a Premier level final.

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Coming into this event, Bacsinszky had lost her last five matches since Wimbledon and looked likely to lose a sixth straight when she trailed Camila Giorgi 16 24. However, battling back has been a recurrent theme for the 26 year old this week as she’s struggled through three setters in four of the five matches she’s contested. After grinding past (12/7) Carla Suarez Navarro 64 46 75 and (20/-) Sara Errani 06 63 75 (having trailed 06 02), she then recovered to beat (15/6) Ana Ivanovic 57 64 61 in the semis. The Serb had recovered from 1-5 to 4-5 in the second set but faded badly in the third as she failed to handle her disappointment and became distracted by a series of unapparent injuries.

Like Muguruza, Bacsinszky will embark on new ranking territory next week in cracking the top ten for the first time, only the third non-naturalised Swiss to do so behind Martina Hingis and Patty Schnyder. It should come as no real surprise that Bacsinszky should achieve this feat behind a good run in China. Though she didn’t play here last year, she had reached the semi final at Guangzhou and the quarter finals at Wuhan just before, accounting for Maria Sharapova in the latter. She had also played well here in the past, losing in the quarter finals back in 2010 to the former top twenty player, Shahar Peer.

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Muguruza has beaten Bacsinszky in both of their previous meetings, which occurred earlier this year in Grand Slams. Muguruza ran away with a 63 46 60 win in the third round of the Australian Open and battled through a tough first set en route to a 75 63 win in the quarters at Wimbledon.

As was the case in the semi finals here, Muguruza will be the aggressor in this match. She will look to attack the return of second serve and her opponent’s forehand, so Bacsinszky must try to avoid getting pinned too far behind the baseline where she’s forced to slice on her weaker wing. Whenever possible, Bacsinszky must move over to hit her far more secure backhand. Recalling that match at Wimbledon, Bacsinszky did this well until the decisive moments of the first set when the pressure really told as she felt extra pressure to force the issue on her backhand and made costly errors.

This is a huge match for both women as each stands to win their biggest title to date. Muguruza should feel more relaxed than in previous finals as she’s already qualified for Singapore and is playing an opponent she’s never lost to. Bacsinszky will fight her heart out as always and has to win the title if she’s to remain in contention for a place at the WTA Finals.

Considering Muguruza’s solid form for the past few weeks, the head to head and their respective playing styles, I predict Muguruza will finally win a Premier level title.

WTA Beijing: Final Prediction- Garbine Muguruza

Next: WTA Beijing: Semi Final Predictions

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