WTA Finals: Final Prediction

WTA Finals: Does Kvitova have enough to hit through the Radwanska wall?

The final has been decided at the WTA Finals, staged on the indoor hard courts in Singapore.

A rather unexpected final will transpire between Petra Kvitova and Agnieszka Radwanska, both of whom qualified into the semis despite losing records in the round robin stages.

Here’s my prediction as to who will win the penultimate event on this year’s WTA calendar.

(Rank/Seed)

(5/4) Petra Kvitova vs (6/5) Agnieszka Radwanska

Kvitova must be surprised to still be in this tournament considering her languid start to the event. It’s no secret that the Czech has struggled for the majority of the year with glandular fever and came into this event behind early defeats in Wuhan and Beijing.

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Her 62 76(3) loss against (7/6) Angelique Kerber in her first match of the tournament was rather inauspicious, as was her narrow 75 75 victory over (9/8) Lucie Safarova a couple of days later. However, by virtue of extending (3/2) Garbine Muguruza to three sets, albeit losing 64 46 75, the 25 year old had just about done enough to qualify in second place from the White Group to reach the semi finals.

Few would have predicted she would stun (4/3) Maria Sharapova 63 76(3) at this stage, considering the Russian had a perfect 3-0 record in her round robin group and led 5-1 in the second set.

Radwanska’s path to the final bears a strong resemblance to her opponent’s. In contrast though, the Pole came into this event behind a red hot Asian series which saw her win titles in Tokyo and Tianjin and reach the semis in Beijing.

A hard fought 46 63 64 defeat against Maria Sharapova in her opener wouldn’t have worried her unduly but a surprisingly straight forward 76(5) 64 defeat at the hands of the US Open champion, (8/7) Flavia Pennetta practically ended the 26 year olds chance of advancement. In fact, only one in sixteen scenarios saw Radwanska find herself in the semis. She had to beat (2/1) Simona Halep in straight sets and Maria Sharapova had to beat Flavia Pennetta by the same margin. Who’d have thought that this would happen? Radwanska had lost four of her last five meetings against the Romanian and Sharapova hadn’t beaten Pennetta since 2006! Yet, it happened! Radwanska recovered from 1-5 down in the tiebreak to beat Halep 76(5) 61 and Sharapova similarly edged a tough opener before cruising 75 61.

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Having squeaked into second place in the Red Group, Radwanska faced the mountainous task of taking on Garbine Muguruza in the semi finals. Not only had the Spaniard gone a perfect 3-0 in round robin play but had beaten Radwanska in all four of their meetings this year, including the aforementioned semi final in Beijing weeks ago. Though Muguruza persisted to recover from innumerable deficits, Radwanska somehow got the job done in the end 67(5) 63 75 to reach the final.

So, who’d have thought that two players with losing records in the round robin stages would now stand to win such a prestigious title? No player has ever won this event before having lost two matches in the group stages.

Kvitova certainly has the advantage of winning huge titles, given that she’s won Wimbledon twice and was the champion here in 2011. She also possesses a great record in finals, winning seventeen of the twenty two she’s contested, including all three this year in Sydney, Madrid and New Haven.

Similarly, Radwanska has a great record in finals, winning sixteen of the twenty three she’s contested and two of three this year. However, she’s never won a title this big and has only contested one final of this size or bigger at Wimbledon 2012. Prior to this, Radwanska had failed to win either semi final she’d contested here, losing to Serena Williams in 2012 and Simona Halep in 2014.

Overall, Kvitova bosses Radwanska 6-2 in their head to head, winning their only encounter this year 75 64 in the New Haven quarter finals. Interestingly, this will be the fifth successive year that the two will meet at this event. Kvitova won during the round robin of 2011 and 2013 whilst both of Radwanska’s wins occurred during the round robin stages in 2012 and 2014. Each time, she used the slow court to wear Kvitova down and dropped only five games on both occasions.

So, who do I think will win? Kvitova has the advantage of being able to win cheap points behind her bigger serve and groundstrokes and knows how to win big titles. Radwanska will have to do as she always does; defend, mix it up and flatten out her forehand whenever she can. The question is, does she have any gas left in the tank for this match?

Given the way the two have taken it turn to win matches at this event against each other, it seems that it might be Kvitova’s turn once again and I’m inclined to agree.

WTA Finals: Final Prediction- Petra Kvitova

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