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Roger Federer 2016 Preview

By Christopher Weis

Sep 13, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Roger Federer of Switzerland hits to Novak Djokovic of Serbia on day fourteen of the 2015 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 13, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Roger Federer of Switzerland hits to Novak Djokovic of Serbia on day fourteen of the 2015 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports /
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Roger Federer begins his 2016 season (words many followers of tennis news couldn’t have imagined typing or reading a few years ago) in Brisbane, Australia at the Brisbane International.

Much has been made of examining Federer’s schedule in 2016.   He is playing a total of sixteen events, which could possibly/likely extend to seventeen with the ATP World Tour Finals.  What is most notable about that schedule, however, is that Federer has a break that will last for over two months.

After he plays Indian Wells in March, he is skipping the Miami Masters, which he has done before. Now, however, he is playing none of the clay tournaments in Europe, such as Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome, that serve as warmups for the French Open.

Ostensibly, this seems to be an effort to ensure Federer’s health going into the Olympics in Rio. Not a bad move, especially if he teams up with Stan Wawrinka for doubles and with Martina Hingis for mixed doubles.

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Federer is not obligated to play in the Masters 1000 events due to his age and his record, so he has the luxury of being able to cut out ones that do not favor him as much, such as the ones in Europe on clay. At the same time, he can continue to go to tournaments that favor him, such as the Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati.

Now, for a look at the Brisbane International in which Federer is playing this week. For a tournament that is only a 250 event, it has a pretty good field. Federer is the top seed, while world number eight Kei Nishikori is the second seed.  The third and fourth seeds are Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic, respectively.

In terms of a prediction, I’ll say that Federer wins the title over Nishikori and gets his year off to a good start.  He had a really solid year in 2015, winning a total of six titles.  Notably, Federer seemed to thrive at the smaller events, where he has to play fewer matches.   In ATP World Tour 500 and 250 events, he went a combined 5-0 in finals, while at the other finals he went a combined 1-5.  At his age, Federer clearly does benefit from having to play fewer matches and perhaps also from not playing all the top opponents.

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Regardless, Federer’s longevity is still remarkable. He will turn 35 on August 8, 2016, and it wouldn’t sound crazy to predict that he will win another major title or even the long-sought-after gold medal at the Rio Olympics.

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