Rio Olympics: Men’s Singles Draw Analysis
Thursday was Olympic Draw announcement day in the world of tennis. Here is what you need to know before play begins on Saturday.
The International Tennis Federation, the governing body for Tennis at the 2016 Summer Olympic Games in Rio, released the draw for the men’s and women’s singles, along with doubles on both sides, and mixed doubles.
One thing stands out right away: its obvious that they wanted to make world number one Novak Djokovic’s road to his first gold medal as hard as possible right from the word go.
The Serbian sensation, who is trying to complete the golden slam, will face Juan Martin Del Potro from Argentina in the first round in a rematch of the 2012 bronze medal clash, a match that Del Porto won in straight sets. Being the number one seed, Djokovic is of course the chalk for the top half.
With only men’s singles draw matches counted, Djokovic has an overall 11-4 win/loss advantage when facing the 145th player in the world. The last time the two faced off in regular season play came at the 2013 ATP World Tour finals: that match went to Djokovic in three sets; 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(3).
People will look at the 2012 result as an indicator, and while Del Porto’s big serve and forehand will be a challenge, Djokovic wasn’t dominating at the level he is now four years ago.
Djokovic is the best returner, the best mover on the court, and he is the best player on the hard surface, and when it comes to playing the big points.
Meanwhile, Del Porto is not the same player. He was fourth in the world in 2010, but has obviously stumbled since then. Expect a tight three set match, but Djokovic will prevail with revenge and his first gold medal on mind.
At the bottom half of the draw, the second seed Andy Murray starts his gold medal defense with a match against another Serbian: Victor Troicki. Everybody knows the form that Murray is in, but don’t push aside his opponent.
Despite never beating Murray in eight career head-to-head meetings, the 35th ranked player in the world has a title to his credit in 2016, and he won’t be a push over. Troicki hasn’t had Olympic success losing in the Round of 64 in 2012, but the experience gained from that defeat should help him this time around. Expect Murray to prevail in straight sets.
If the top two seeds can get past their first matches, with Djokovic drawing the harder of the two, than I see an easy path for both of them to clash in the final, and it’s what everybody wants. The biggest challenger I see for Djokovic is American Jack Sock, and another American Steve Johnson or Italian Fabio Fognini are the biggest worries for Murray.
Rafael Nadal will be the next highest seed after announcing he will compete in all events, but the Spaniard won’t be 100 percent, and his likely semifinal opponent is Djokovic if he can get past likely quarterfinal opponents, David Goffin or Pablo Cuevas.
Four seed and Rogers Cup finalist Kei Nishikori will start his Olympics against Albert-Ramos Vinolas. His likely semifinal opponent will be Andy Murray.
Watch out for the next two highest seeds who are in great form: Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and Gael Monfils respectively.
Predictions for singles medals:
Gold: Novak Djokovic
Silver: Andy Murray
Bronze: Gael Monfils defeats Kei Nishikori
Predictions for doubles medals:
Gold: Nicolas Mahut and Pierre-Hughes Herbert
Silver: Bruno Soares and Marcelo Melo
Bronze: Andy Murray and Jamie Murray
Stay with Lob and Smash for more great coverage of tennis at the Rio Olympics!