Rafael Nadal vs Novak Djokovic: Previewing the 2018 Rome Semifinal
Its been over a year since the two behemoths of the game met on the match courts.
While Rafael Nadal has had a good year and a half, the same can’t be said about Novak Djokovic, who had a drop in form in 2016 and 2017 and struggled massively to get back to the grind of things since the start of his 2018 campaign down under.
His return to the sport in the sunshine double was jarringly bad and unnecessarily hastened. Positive changes came when he Marian Vajda and his former physical trainer back on camp, and this week has seen some good tennis from Novak, especially in his quarterfinal match against Kei Nishikori.
But is Novak good enough to dethrone the King of Clay for the 27th time?
History
Considered one of the most prolific rivalries to grace the sport, the pair has met on 50 occasions in the past, with Djokovic leading the head to head at 26-24. They met on the clay of Madrid last year, where Nadal snapped a 7 match losing streak to finally record a win for the first time since the 2014 French Open Final.
They’ve had some of the most intense matches ever seen, from the 2012 Australian Open Final and the 2013 French Open Semi-Final, to the 2009 Madrid Semi-Final. The first time Novak beat Rafa on clay was the 2011 Madrid Masters. He’s since beat Nadal 7 times on clay, the most by a single person which accounts for 19% of all of Rafa’s losses on clay (36).
How they match up
Rafa has had a mixed clay season so far in comparison to his performance in 2017. While he’s only lost one match so far and only 3 sets, his game has several kinks in the armour that he’ll need to address to allow for smooth sailing in a match that is likely to be far from it. The number of unforced errors has risen and the number of breaks of serve is more than what we’re used to.
Novak is a fantastic returner and the spiral we’ve seen in his return seemed non-existent after the fantastic match against Nishikori, or even when he managed to return every single first serve from Alexandr Dolgopolov in the first round.
Novak will have to hit deep returns off both wings and make sure his serve is well chiselled. In his quarterfinal match, there were very few things wrong in his game, but it is important to remember that this observation is the first we’ve seen in over a year. In virtually every match since Indian Wells, we’ve seen either his forehand, court positioning, footspeed or mental strength collapse. Against an opponent like Nadal, it’ll be paramount for him to make sure he doesn’t falter.
All said and done, it is likely that the winner of this match will be the one who capitalises on the opponent’s errors while making sure their game is solid. While this won’t be their primary game plan, it could be the most important one.
Prediction
Nadal to win in 3 sets.
