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Evaluating Alexander Zverev’s chances in the French Open

By Keshav Gopalan

ROME, ITALY - MAY 20: Alexander Zverev of Germany plays a backhand shot during the Mens Singles final match between Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev on Day Eight of the The Internazionali BNL d'Italia 2018 at Foro Italico on May 20, 2018 in Rome, Italy. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)
ROME, ITALY - MAY 20: Alexander Zverev of Germany plays a backhand shot during the Mens Singles final match between Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev on Day Eight of the The Internazionali BNL d'Italia 2018 at Foro Italico on May 20, 2018 in Rome, Italy. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images) /
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Alexander Zverev enters the French Open as the second seed. The German “Next Gen” player is the first non big four member since Andy Roddick in the 2006 Australian Open to be seeded second in a grand slam.

Zverev being the second seed is no coincidence. The 21-year-old has worked hard this clay season to consolidate his ranking. He won Madrid and Munich, reached the semi-finals of Monte Carlo and the finals of Rome. He’s lost only two matches this clay season, he won Madrid without being broken and facing only one break point and almost beat Nadal in a tightly contested and rain-delayed final.

However, Zverev is yet to beat a top 50 player in grand slams and his record stands at a sad 0-7. He’s also yet to get past the fourth round of a grand slam, something very surprising for a world number three and a player who already has 3 masters titles and 5 masters finals. Taking all these things into consideration, we evaluate Alexander Zverev’s chances in the French Open

He enters the tournament in good form

It’s safe to say that Zverev is playing very good tennis. His serve has been impressive and almost impenetrable and his forehand has seen some marked improvements. His forehand was prone to falling apart in key moments. However, this doesn’t seem to be the case anymore and his form has been very good.

Despite losing the Rome Final to Nadal, a key point to remember is that Zverev is now better equipped to deal with weather delays, especially against Nadal, who has regrouped very well in such situations.

When asked about the lack of top 50 wins in Grand Slams, Zverev remarked:

"“We all know I’m going to beat a top-50 player at some point in a Grand Slam. I mean, this is not something I worry about, to be honest.”"

The world will see if that happens or not, but the chances are very high.

An average draw that’s neither difficult nor easy

His first top 50 opponent is Damir Dzumhur. Interestingly, Dzumhur won their first and only meeting so far when they met in the quarterfinals in China. While not a traditionally difficult opponent (especially since Dzumhur doesn’t possess any weapons that can hurt Zverev on Clay), this will be the first test for Zverev to see if he’s overcome his mental block against Top 50 players, who will likely flood the draw from the third round onwards. He faces either Lucas Pouille or Stan Wawrinka in the fourth round, and Dominic Thiem in the Quarterfinals. Djokovic/Goffin wait in the Semifinals and Nadal in the finals.

Zverev will be confident about his chances but admits that the final is a long way to go:

"“I’m not trying to think that, you know, I’m going to play Rafa in the final.“This is a long way ahead, and I’m not trying to think ahead. I have done that before in Grand Slams, and I lost early.”"

Next: What comes next for Stan Wawrinka?

Conclusion

One match at a time is the best mindset Zverev should adopt as he battles his way to a potential first slam. If he is to reach the final, it seems likely that he’ll face Nadal. If Zverev plays the way he has this clay season, doesn’t get distracted and adapts to adverse situations, it is very likely that the Next-Gen superstar might just become a Current-Gen sensation.

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