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Can Alex De Minaur mount an upset against Nadal?

By Keshav Gopalan

LONDON, ENGLAND - JULY 05: Rafael Nadal of Spain returns a shot against Mikhail Kukushkin of Kazakhstan during their Men's Singles second round match on day four of the Wimbledon Lawn Tennis Championships at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club on July 5, 2018 in London, England. (Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - JULY 05: Rafael Nadal of Spain returns a shot against Mikhail Kukushkin of Kazakhstan during their Men's Singles second round match on day four of the Wimbledon Lawn Tennis Championships at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club on July 5, 2018 in London, England. (Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images) /
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Alex De Minaur has done very well this Wimbledon. The Australian teenager reached the 3rd round of a slam for the 1st time in his career, and Wimbledon couldn’t have been more perfect for this to happen. He reached the final of Surbiton (l. to Chardy), won the Nottingham challenger and had his 1st top 30 win this week by eliminating Marco Cecchinato.

His flat game and precise and intelligent point construction all help his game in the grass and the circumstances surrounding his matchup with Nadal are strikingly similar to that of compatriot Nick Kyrgios. Both received wild cards into the main draw (however De Minaur later received direct entry), Nick was 19 when he beat Rafa and De Minaur is 19. Both won the Nottingham challenger prior to facing Nadal and in both years Nadal beat Kukushkin on his way to meet a 19-year-old Aussie.

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Seriously though

Tin foil hat thinking aside, Alex doesn’t really have a good chance at beating Nadal. Nadal’s uncharacteristic early losses post-2011 may have dented his image as an unbeatable player on grass, but a recurring pattern in Nadal’s early round losses has been that he tends to lose to big servers who have an aggressive style of play. De Minaur has a weak serve and is a counter puncher. While he is a tactically brilliant player, Nadal’s newfound aggressiveness, especially in finishing points early by approaching the net more often might trouble the young Aussie.

Best form in a long time

Nadal has been playing very well this week at Wimbledon. While his serve is still a liability and his backhand slice almost nightmarish, the Spaniard’s power hitting will help him avoid getting his serve broken, which De Minaur with his counterpunching style of play will definitely try to take advantage of.

In the end, it seems unlikely that this Aussie will mount the victory. Perhaps in the coming matchups and with a more refined game, the tables could turn.

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