How a no-Nadal US Open will lead to a runaway Djokovic title

Rafael Nadal has announced he will not be participating in this year’s US Open. Here’s why his withdrawal opens the door for a runaway Djokovic major title.

After months of speculation, Rafael Nadal has officially announced that he will not be participating in this year’s US Open, therefore taking him out of contention to defend his title. The current World #2 and 4-time champion at Flushing Meadows had been seen practicing on clay over the last few months while still not giving the public a clear answer on the matter. Today, however, his decision was made clear.

"“After many thoughts I have decided to not play this year’s US Open,” the 19-time Grand Slam champion said via Twitter. “The situation is very complicated worldwide, the COVID-19 cases are increasing, it looks like we still don’t have control of it.”“All my respects to the USTA, the US Open organisers and the ATP for trying to put the event together for the players and the fans around the world through TV,” he continued."

Nadal’s statement came in conjunction with a morning press release by the US Open detailing some of the top players still remain on the tournament’s entry list. Among the list are seven of the ATP’s top ten: Novak Djokovic (World #1), Dominic Thiem (3), Daniil Medvedev (5), Stefanos Tsitsipas (6), Alexander Zverev (7), Matteo Berrettini (8), David Goffin (10).

13 Americans have also received entry into the event, including 2018 quarterfinalist, John Isner, and 2018 doubles champion, Jack Sock. Without Nadal, they’ll all likely have a better shot of advancing deep into the tournament. US players haven’t achieved much success at all on tour since the reign of the Big 3; there hasn’t been a US major champion since 2003, where Andy Roddick (US Open) and Andre Agassi (Australian Open) took both hard court Grand Slams that year.

In fact, the last time an American appeared in a Grand Slam final was at the 2009 Wimbledon Championships, where Rodick fell to Federer in their 4-hour, 17-minute epic.

Last time an American won each of the Grand Slam events

"Australian Open: 2003 (Andre Agassi)Roland Garros: 1999 (Andre Agassi)Wimbledon: 2000 (Pete Sampras)US Open: 2003 (Andy Roddick)"

Nadal’s withdrawal opens the door for many but for no one better than World #1, Novak Djokovic. Without his two biggest rivals (Federer withdrew from the remainder of the 2020 season due to injury), Djokovic’s biggest competitors are now Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev. While Thiem and Medvedev have achieved some success on hard courts, they still don’t dominate enough on the surface to call themselves true rivals for Djokovic next month.

As the 2019 US Open finalist, Medvedev could pose a threat to the three-time champion. However, the young Russian had the benefit of not having to go through Federer (lost in the quarterfinals) or Djokovic (retired in the fourth round). He faced only one seeded player outside of Nadal (23rd-ranked Stan Wawrinka).

Thiem has become one of the ATP’s best in the last year and a half. Now a three-time Grand Slam finalist, one of which coming at this year’s Australian Open, he could prove to be Djokovic’s only threat in the event next month. He took down three straight top ten players on his way to the final: Gael Monfils in Round 4, Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals, and Alexander Zverev in the semifinals. His title run came up just short as he fell to Djokovic in a five-set final.

For Djokovic, it’s him versus the next generation. Djokovic is currently 25-11 against all of the current competing members of the top ten and is 17-5 on hard courts against the same group.

Novak Djokovic head-to-head against ATP Top Ten:

Dominic Thiem: 7-4 (4-1 on hard courts)

Daniil Medvedev: 4-2 (3-1)

Stefanos Tsitsipas: 3-2 (2-2)

Alexander Zverev: 3-2 (2-1)

Matteo Berrettini: 1-0 (1-0)

David Goffin: 7-1 (5-0)

Djokovic will clearly enter the tournament as the overwhelming favorite to win with Dominic Thiem likely to slide into the second spot. Unless one of the young stars can make a run or an American can break the 14-year drought, it seems that the Serbian’s 17 major titles will turn to 18 by the middle of September.

The US Open is set to begin August 31st as the ATP’s second tournament in the season restart. Men’s tennis returns to action August 20th at the Western & Southern Open, which will be held at the US Open’s venue in Flushing Meadows, New York.