ATP US Open Draw: Three players with the most favorable title paths

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 26: Danill Medvedev of Russia plays a shot against Robert Bautista Agut of Spain during the Western & Southern Open at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on August 26, 2020 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /

Daniil Medvedev

On the topic of Medvedev, he has one of the easier paths to the title in comparison to some of his fellow young stars (most notably Dominic Thiem). The defending US Open finalist just lost in the Western & Southern quarterfinals but is still regarded as the player with the best odds outside of Djokovic to win the title this year.

Medvedev projected path:

R1: Delbonis

R2: Djere

R3: F. Lopez

R4: Dimitrov/Tiafoe

QF: Berrettini/Rublev

SF: Thiem/Auger-Alissime

F: Djokovic/Tsitsipas

Medvedev’s first intriguing matchup will come in Round 4, where hell likely face either Tiafoe or Dimitrov. Both are going to be hit-or-miss. Dimitrov has yet to fully recover from COVID-19 that he contracted while playing in the ill-fated Adria Tour. If he is at full strength and is ready to go, Medvedev will have a tough time taking him out. The pair battled at last year’s US Open; Medvedev prevailed in straight sets.

Tiafoe is a huge question mark, as well. He’s had his moments in the last year but hasn’t translated those moments into wins. He gave Medvedev a tough time in Round 1 of Australia this year and took Alexander Zverev to five sets last year in New York. Much like Shapovalov, he’ll be dangerous if he’s on his game.

One of the easier quarterfinal draws of the tournament will come for Medvedev this year. Neither Rublev or Berrettini have ever taken a win off of the World #5 and only Berrettini has reached beyond a quarterfinal of a major (just once at last year’s US Open). A surprise upset could coe into play here; Medvedev has shown that he’s susceptible to upsets (take this week for example).

It’s most likely that Thiem meets Medvedevin the semifinals. While Auger-Aliassime has shown some bright spots, he’s doesn’t have the overall consistency and racket skills of his projected QF opponent. The 3-time Grand Slam finalist shockingly lost 6-2, 6-1 in the first round of this week’s event but lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same place. Thiem has the extra days to get his bearings reset and will be ready to go giving Medvedev a SF clash against his toughest opponent outside of Djokovic.

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