ATP US Open Draw: Three players with the most favorable title paths

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Despite being in Djokovic’s half, he has a comfortable path before he has to deal with his #1 opponent.

R1: Ramos-Vinolas

R2: Kovalik

R3: Coric

R4: Lajovic/Kukushkin

QF: Zverev

SF: Djokovic

F: Medvedev/Thiem

Tsitsipas has the distinct advantage of going against the most inconsistent of the top bunch of players: Alexander Zverev. While the German start has had some fabulous performances in his career, he going to need, as Peter Bodo described it, “couples therapy with his serve”, before he’ll have a legitimate shot at taking down Tsitsipas.

Tsitsipas has been playing very well as of late. He ripped through the UTS field on his way to second place, which included Matteo Berrettini, Dominic Thiem (his only group stage loss), and Richard Gasquet. He’s also the only big name outside of Djokovic to remain in this week’s Western & Southern Open. His groundstrokes look clean, his footwork is one of his top strengths as usual, and he’ll be able to build on a strong tune-up to have the best shot at a deep US Open run.

Tsitsipas’ first true test will come against Novak Djokovic, who he hasn’t beaten since last year’s Shanghai Masters QF. He was run through in the Dubai finals before the season shutdown but did look solid overall. The fast courts in New York have been giving people trouble but Tsitsipas has been one of the only ones that have been able to fend off big serves and groundstrokes with his block return. While it won’t be a huge asset against Djokovic (he’ll need to be playing ultra-consistent), Tsitsipas has the well-rounded game to possibly end Djokovic’s undefeated season.

Moving into the final, both Thiem and Medvedev have given Tsitsiapas trouble (more so than Zverev) in the last few years but Medvedev takes the cake in this regard. While Tsitsipas was able to defeat him at last year’s ATP Finals on his way to the title, Medvedev had taken their previous five meetings, including at the 2018 US Open (a four-set victory).

While Tsitsipas has been known to struggle is in long rallies; Medvedev has been one of the most consistent players on tour in the last year. The defending finalist’s court sense and willingness to switch up tactics will surely be a struggle if this pair does decide to meet in the final. Tsitsipas might have the advantage when playing “winner-ball” (His serve and one-handed backhand is overall more lethal than Medvedev’s) but long rallies might just be the kryptonite that Medvedev will be looking for.

Moving to Dominic Thiem, the pair match up nicely in terms of top skills and style of play. Both have a very aggressive style of play, which helps them to blast through opponents for quick and consecutive points but does lead to unforced errors. If they’re both on their game and are playing consistent tennis, it could end up being the match of the tournament if this finals projection comes into fruition. It’s difficult to say where Thiem will finish this year, however. He entered the shutdown with an Australian Open final under his belt and one where he had a two-sets-to-one advantage, at that.

The problem comes with how he performed this week with the fast surface and layoff. Practice and hitting partners can only go so far and his 6-2, 6-1 loss to Filip Krajinovic was shocking, to say the least. Thiem, in any other scenario, would have the edge over Tsitsipas but given the events of this week, it’s difficult to prove that his blip on the radar was nothing more than just that.

Alternatively, Tsitsipas has rolled through beautifully to the semifinals as of today and could have his best shot at taking down Thiem since last year’s Nitto ATP Finals.