US Open: Predicting where each remaining ATP player will finish

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 08: Alexander Zverev of Germany serves the ball during his Men’s Singles quarterfinal match against Borna Coric of Croatia on Day Nine of the 2020 US Open at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on September 8, 2020 in the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /

2. Alexander Zverev

2020 US Open finish: FINALIST

Alternatively to the “Half of Death” that Thiem has had to deal with so far, Alexander Zverev has gotten a break in terms of his much lighter top half of the draw. Despite this, he’s still started slow out fo the gate before getting through each of his matches so far. It was on display today against Borna Coric in the quarterfinal; Coric ran through Zverev 6-1 in the first set (in large part to Zverev’s 3 double faults down the stretch in the first seven games). He was able to recover despite finishing with 12 double faults.

It’s no secret that he’s one of the most inconsistent players in recent memory. Regardless of that, his serve is right up there with the best if it’s on. Through five matches, he’s served a total of 89 aces (17.8 per match) and is winning an average of 80.4% of points off of his first serve. What’s largely underrated about Zverev’s game is his defense. He, like Medvedev, has great court coverage for someone his size and has an innate ability to find open spots on the court in order to turn defense into offense.

With his win over Coric today, he awaits the winner of Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno Busta. It’s Zverev’s advantages in all factors of the game that puts him into the final here; both players are talented baseliners but will have too much trouble dealing with Zverev’s power on serve.

3. Daniil Medvedev

2020 US Open finish: SEMIFINALIST

Daniil Medvedev is one of the best hard-court players on tour and has certainly shown why so far in his 2020 US Open campaign. He has yet to drop a set so far this tournament and is playing nothing but high-level tennis. Medvedev’s movement and agility for someone his size has always been a marvel but it truly is one of the key reasons why he’s one of the top players in men’s tennis.

He’s set to face fellow Russian, Andrey Rublev, in the quarterfinals tomorrow in what should be a very entertaining match (as well as a slight precursor to the possible Thiem-Medvedev semifinal). Rublev is coming off of a strong victory over Matteo Berrettini (a sleeper pick to make a late run and one of last year’s semifinalists) and has, similar to Thiem, enough raw power to get by anyone. Where Medvedev has the advantage is with his killer defensive abilities.

It”s unfortunate, however, that Medvedev and Thiem are on the same side of the draw, given that they’d be the top two candidates to make the final in any other circumstance. Why Medvedev will ultimately lose in the final, however, is in part due to the lack of competition he’s had to face up to this point. No player in his four matches (up until tomorrow) has been ranked any higher than 78th. While that isn’t a factor in the match itself, it’s incredibly helpful for players to have toughed out wins in earlier rounds rather than breezing through.

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