Serena Williams: A daunting Paris path with legendary possibilities

Serena Williams is entering Roland Garros with a shot at her 24th major title. However, she faces a nightmare draw. Here’s a breakdown of her path and what her chances are at taking the trophy.

With all of the Novak Djokovic/Rafael Nadal/Dominic Thiem talk surrounding the upcoming Roland Garros event, most of the women’s tennis discussion has been swept under the rug. There’s a ton of storylines to cover on the seemingly packed draw. WTA Grand Slams have always been a wide-open draw with plenty of upsets to go around.

Despite this, there are a few clear contenders to take the title and some with an incredibly tough draw. Most notably on the list is Serena Williams, who’ll have to put together a vintage performance in order to finally capture that elusive 24th Grand Slam.

The  23-time major champion hasn’t looked her best in a while, despite her strong performance in New York last month. It was her only bright spot this season and is the real reason for #6 seed heading into clay’s biggest stage.

She’ll have an especially tough task these next two weeks. She starts off against Kristie Ahn, who has yet to reach past a Round of 16 (which she achieved at last year’s US Open). Serena did take her out last month in the opening round 7-5, 6-3, but Ahn has been known to give some of the top players a fair bit trouble down the stretch.

She’ll then have a potential mom versus mom battle in the second round as Tsvetana Pironkova, a surprise quarterfinalist in New York, is the likely candidate to move forward into the 2nd Round. Serena took all five of the pair’s meetings but a three-set thriller last month showed that Pironkova certainly has what it takes to win (she was up a set before losing in three).

Next up for Serena is Barbora Strycova. The 34-year-old World #37 and 2019 Wimbledon semifinalist hasn’t been anywhere near that level since, especially this season. Serena trounced her 6-1, 6-2 in their last meeting (coincidentally the 2019 Wimbledon semi) and shouldn’t have too much trouble, unless Strycova is able to bounce back into form.

The fourth round is where the real test begins. She’ll have a slew of tough players to possibly face, led by Victoria Azarenka. The five-time major finalist (and two-time champion) has arguably been the tour’s hottest player in 2020; she won the Western & Southern Open and followed that up with an appearance in the US Open Final before falling to Naomi Osaka.

To cap it off, she advanced to the quarterfinals in Rome before falling to Garbine Muguruza (a week in which she double-bageled Sofia Kenin). Azarenka is a huge threat to Serena’s title hopes and will likely be the favorite going into the match, regardless of her lower seed.

If she’s able to sneak past Azarenka, she’ll be likely set to face 3rd-seeded Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals. Svitolina hasn’t had a ton of match play post-restart but she’s currently sitting in the Strausburg final after taking out Aryana Sabalenka with ease. While she’s only beaten Serena once in her career (during the 2016 Rio Olympics), she’s been one of the best players in the world for the last few years. The all-around grinder will certainly give Serena trouble if they both advance to this point, especially if Svitolina is able to enter Roland Garros with a title under her belt.

The projected semifinal, if it comes to fruition, will likely be the match of the tournament. Simona Halep is currently the favorite to win the event and hasn’t lost a match since the restart on her way to two clay-court titles. As a former Roland Garros champion, it’s clear that Halep is at her very best as of now.

With wins over Mugaruza, Elise Mertens, and Karolina Pliskova, there doesn’t seem to be anyone in the draw that can put up a solid fight. Add everything I just mentioned to the fact that Halep took out Serena 6-2, 6-2 in last year’s Wimbledon final and you’ve got a one-woman wrecking ball headed into the week.

In the event that Serena somehow makes it through her star-studded half, she’ll have to deal with a large group of former major champions such as Garbine Mugaruza, Sofia Kenin, Angelique Kerber, Sloane Stephens,  or Petra Kvitova. Another threat, Karolina Plisova, also lurks in the bottom half of the draw and is obviously a formidable foe for Serena if she does in fact survive her previous six matches.

So what are Serena’s chances? In my personal opinion, not very high at all. The list of formidable opponents is simply too large and too many for her to be able to fend off. She’ll have four incredibly tough matches beginning from the fourth round, all of whom have outplayed her so far in the post-restart tennis world. While she’s certainly fought out of positions like these before and, as a result, is a 23-time major champion for a reason, it just doesn’t seem plausible this time around.

If she does, though, it’ll surely be one of her greatest feats to date in her career. As she’s in the twilight of her career, her possible 24th major title would be her greatest ever.