French Open: WTA Finals Preview – What are the chances for Iga Swiatek?

Iga Swiatek and Sofia Kenin are set to face off in the 2020 French Open final. Here is a preview of their upcoming match, as well as one key to success for each player.

The women’s final at the French Open is set. The 19-year-old teenage sensation, Iga Swiatek, is on an absolute tear so far over the last two weeks and has yet to drop a set. On the other side of things, 2020 Australian Open champion, Sofia Kenin, has needed a few three-setters in order to work her way through the draw but put on quite a show in her straight-sets victory over Petra Kvitova in the semifinals.

In an upset-heavy draw that saw only three seeded players reach the quarterfinals, Kenin and Swiatek looked to be two of the tournament’s largest surprises, though only on the surface. Looking at their respective post-restart results, it wasn’t pretty.

After winning the title in Australia, Kenin faltered significantly. The feelings of disappointment after her US Open showing that saw her fall in the Round of 16 to Elise Mertens was only compounded by the 6-0, 6-0 defeat she took to Victoria Azarenka in Rome. It’s an especially crushing defeat at any level of the sport given the rarity of such a one-sided occurrence.

"“I just tried to not think about that match. That match I’m never gonna watch,” Kenin said recently."

Although not as turbulent of a showing as Kenin giving her lower expectations and ranking, Swiatek didn’t show any promise after a first-round loss to qualifier Arantxa Rus in Rome.

It seems as though, similar to the ATP, tuneups tournaments yield the opposite results than the ensuing Grand Slam. Of the eight quarterfinalists in Rome, only one of them was able to replicate that result the following week in Paris (Elina Svitolina). In fact, only one other player besides Svitolina even made the 4th Round (Simona Halep). Obviously, past results don’t tell anywhere close to the entire story.

More from Lob and Smash

• Caroline Wozniacki gets her wild card for the Australian Open
• Tennis News: Rafael Nadal, Emma Raducanu and protected rankings
• Martina Navratilova: Money lost by coming out was in the ‘millions’
• Tennis News: Novak Djokovic, Nick Kyrgios and Matteo Berrettini
• Boris Becker and Rick Macci bicker over Carlos Alcaraz

It’s clear that Kenin has the historical advantage in Grand Slams given her title at the beginning of the year but there’s no question that Swiatek has looked like the better player throughout this tournament. She possesses a stunning baseline attack, complete with power and heavy topspin on both her forehand and backhand. She has, as Mats Wilander pointed out, a similar baseline style to that of Novak Djokovic in the sense of crowding the baseline and taking the ball early to catch her opponent off guard.

"“If you don’t hit the ball well then he’ll take the short ball and hurt you with it. She is very natural, not risky either because she hits the ball with so much spin and so much margin,” Wilander said of the teen."

The only real struggle that’s possible for the young star is if she’ll be able to compete in tight matches against players of Kenin’s caliber. Of the 12 sets she’s played so far, 9 of them have resulted in a 6-1 or 6-2 result. Two of them finished 6-3 and just one ended at 6-4 (during her second-round match with Hsieh Su-wei). While her career results have been in favor of her (she’s 15-6 in three-set matches since the beginning of 2019), she hasn’t won a match against a player ranked in the top ten outside of her defeat of Halep this week and a decent 5-4 showing against those in the top twenty certainly gives Kenin an advantage.

Where Kenin fares extremely well is in her ability to tough out these tight matches. She’s won her last eight three-set matches in a row as has an overall record of 26-14 in deciders since the beginning of 2019.

One major key for her to take the match is to pounce of Swiatek’s second serve. While the teen doesn’t seem to have any major flaws in her game, it’s not the case, rather she hasn’t had a situation in the last two weeks where they’ve been too apparent. Her second serve, like most of the players on tour, isn’t the greatest. This is where Kenin can shine tomorrow. Through six matches, she’s won 47% of points on the second serve return (83-of-177). Swiatek has simultaneously served just 58% on her first serve this tournament.

Besides putting together a good performance on serve, Swiatek’s main key to success for tomorrow to attack like never before. She has the baseline game to keep Kenin on her heels with pace and court placement. With the added bonus of a receptive clay surface that will kick her heavy topspin groundstrokes up into Kenin’s face, Swiatek needs to stay on the offensive from the baseline in order to maintain an upper hand.

So, what are the chances for both players? It’s likely a 50-50 battle. Kenin’s defensive abilities match up extremely well with Switek’s firepower, effectively negated the success of the other’s strength. The edge might have to go to Swiatek, however, given her domination over the last two weeks and how well the surface works well with her heavy topspin attack.

The women’s final begins at 3 PM CEST (9 AM EST).