Heating up: The three best prospects for the ATP’s World Number 4

With Roger Federer out of action until 2021, three of the brightest prospects in the ATP will fight it out to overtake Federer in the rankings.

Alexander Zverev won his second title of the year in Cologne with a ruthless destruction of Diego Schwartzman in the final. Zverev also became the first player in the top 10 to win two ATP 250 titles in back-to-back weeks since Tomas Berdych.

Zverev’s latest win solidifies his position as the World No 7. He is now a whopping 1600 points ahead of current World No 8 Andrey Rublev in the ATP Rankings. More importantly, however, he is also 1600 points behind World No 4 Roger Federer.  He is also about 900 points behind World No 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas and World No 6 Daniil Medvedev. These margins are important to be told because with Federer not playing until 2021, The World No 4 ranking is up for grabs. It’s important because, with the Australian Open around the corner, a top 4 ranking gives you the added advantage of avoiding each of the other higher-ranked players until at least the semifinals.

Federer will drop 400 points from the ATP Finals last year. So, his year-end total points will be 6230. Zverev’s current total is 5015 points. Tsitsipas’s current total is 5925, and Medvedev’s current total is 5890. We will now see how each of these three players can attain the Year-End No 4 ranking.

For Stefanos Tsitsipas:

Tsitsipas is currently signed up to play in Vienna, Paris-Bercy, and the ATP Finals in London. He is the defending champion in London(1300 points to defend), and so to have any chance of getting to that career-high World No 4 ranking, he will have to win the title in London. Apart from that, he will have to gain 400 points from Vienna, and Paris-Bercy combined. He only has a QF appearance in Paris-Bercy to better. The problem with Tsitsipas is that he has recently aggravated his injury against Djokovic in the French Open. So, it’s difficult to see him winning all the titles while coming back from an injury.

For Daniil Medvedev:

Daniil Medvedev has, by far, the best chance of overtaking Federer in the rankings. He has a lot of ATP Points to gain. He only has to earn 400 points. He can gain points in Vienna, Bercy, and the ATP Finals. He lost all his matches in the 2019 ATP Finals, so he doesn’t drop any points. Essentially, Medvedev needs only two wins in the Round Robin stage of the ATP Finals to overtake Federer. The problem with Medvedev is that he is completely out of form. Since making the semifinals in the US Open, Medvedev has been 1-3 in his matches. In the 1st round in Hamburg to Humbert, he lost in the 1st round in The French Open to Fucsovics and then lost in the 3rd round in St. Petersburg to Opelka. These are not ideal results, and the matches only get tougher in this Home Stretch.

For Alexander Zverev:

Zverev is not playing in Vienna this week, and hence, his only opportunity to gain ATP Points is in Paris-Bercy, Sofia, and the ATP Finals. He has to defend 400 points in the ATP Finals. So, that means he has to gain 1600+ points to overtake Federer. Zverev’s chances are the least likely of the 3, and it would need him to win Paris-Bercy and the ATP Finals at the minimum and then hope that other results go his way. It is the least likely scenario of the three, and it would need some insanely good tennis from Sascha Zverev for this to happen.

He got his first win over a top 10 opponent this year against Diego Schwartzman in Cologne. He will hope to build on that as this year draws to a close.