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Nitto ATP Finals semis are set: Why each remaining player can or can’t win

By Brandon Daniels

LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 17: Dominic Thiem of Austria celebrates during his match against Rafael Nadal of Spain during Day 3 of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals at The O2 Arena on November 17, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 17: Dominic Thiem of Austria celebrates during his match against Rafael Nadal of Spain during Day 3 of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals at The O2 Arena on November 17, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images) /
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LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 19: Rafael Nadal of Spain hits a backhand against Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece during Day 5 of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals at The O2 Arena on November 19, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 19: Rafael Nadal of Spain hits a backhand against Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece during Day 5 of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals at The O2 Arena on November 19, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images) /

2. Rafael Nadal

Group record: 2-1 (Rublev 6-3 6-4, Thiem (7)6-7 (4)6-7, Tsitsipas 6-4 4-6 6-2)

Semifinals opponent: Daniil Medvedev

Why he’s in a good position to win: The group stage full spectrum.

He had three vastly different matches: A comfortable win, a close loss, and a nail-biting victory. That’s not any real indication that Nadal is going to suddenly burst out and take the event given the fact that he’s one of the best players of all time and he’s already readily prepared for what’s to come. Regardless of his vast prior experience, having these types of matches, especially losses, are extremely helpful. Nadal is the ultimate warrior on the court and will do whatever it takes to win a match.

The avoidance of Thiem in the semifinals certainly help, as he’s arguably the most dangerous player still standing, but Nadal has certainly been playing well. He’s had his struggles on serve over the last few months (with it definitely dipping in effectiveness against bigger baseline hitters), but he’s picked it up so far in London. In his three group stage matches, he won 77.33% of his first-serve points (including 81.5% in wins). Nadal’s fate rests on how well he controls this part of his game.

Why he isn’t: History is against him.

This is a terrible claim, I realize. This could finally be the year that he wins his first ATP Finals have five other trips to at least the semifinals. He’s playing extremely well, but so are the other three players still left. I’d say I feel least confident about him and Medvedev I heading into the last few matches just given the fact that Nadal has never been the indoor hard-court player that could match up against solid returners (Djokovic/Medvedev) or big hitters (Thiem).

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