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Nitto ATP Finals semis are set: Why each remaining player can or can’t win

By Brandon Daniels

LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 17: Dominic Thiem of Austria celebrates during his match against Rafael Nadal of Spain during Day 3 of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals at The O2 Arena on November 17, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 17: Dominic Thiem of Austria celebrates during his match against Rafael Nadal of Spain during Day 3 of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals at The O2 Arena on November 17, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images) /
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LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 18: Daniil Medvedev of Russia serves against Novak Djokovic of Serbia during Day 4 of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals at The O2 Arena on November 18, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 18: Daniil Medvedev of Russia serves against Novak Djokovic of Serbia during Day 4 of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals at The O2 Arena on November 18, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images) /

4. Daniil Medvedev

Group record: 2-0* (Zverev 6-3 6-4, Djokovic 6-3 6-3)

Semifinals opponent: Rafael Nadal

Why he’s in a good position to win: Peak form and group stage domination.

Questions were swirling around Medvedev heading into this event. He struggled mightily through the clay season after making the US Open semifinals and compounded those concerns with a string of early losses in the post-French Open hard court swing. Despite his Paris Masters title, no one could really pinpoint whether or not Medvedev was back in his groove as he had been at this time last year.

He’s been rolling since the start of November. He’s lost just two sets this month in seven matches with wins over Djokovic, Zverev (twice), Schwartzman, Milos Raonic, and Alex de Minaur. It’s been a huge building point for him as he looks to build upon his first appearance in the ATP Finals semis. Now up against Rafael Nadal, this is the best matchup for him. While Nadal has been playing some great tennis in London (arguably looking better than Djokovic so far), Medvedev’s consistency and defensive abilities have been on full display in his wins over Djokovic and Zverev.

Why he isn’t: A short turnaround = a possible burnout.

Medvedev has the extremely unlucky scheduling conflict of a “short week”, as NFL fans say. He has the late match today against Schwartzman and will have to turn around immediately and play the early match tomorrow against Nadal in the semifinals. The scheduling gods were not with him here and it could be his undoing in terms of physical preparation and rest, especially considering he hasn’t looked 100% over the last couple of months. If he’s fit, I’d give him a solid shot to take down Nadal tomorrow. If not, it isn’t looking good for him.

Next. Ash Barty and Nick Kyrgios to play in the Australian Open. dark

The ATP Finals semis begin tomorrow with Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal at 9 AM EST.

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