Why Rafa Nadal will win the French Open in 2021
No result is certain in tennis. You can be the best in the world, but if you are not better than your opponent for the 2–3-hour span during a match, you will lose. In tennis, you do not have to play like the best in the world every day to win, you just have to be better than your opponent that day.
So, although no result is certain, there are outcomes that are more likely to happen than others. One of those likely outcomes is Rafa Nadal winning the French Open every year that he plays. It does not happen every year, as Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, and Novak Djokovic were each able to capture one during Nadal’s career so far. However, it has come to a point where it would be ridiculous to bet against Nadal winning at the French.
Nadal will be the big favorite to take the title in Paris when the French Open kicks off on May 30th. Here is why Nadal will capture his 14th French Open title in 2021.
Unstoppable at the French Open
It is simple, Nadal is the greatest clay court tennis player of all time. There is no debate, it is just a fact at this point. Imagine if two Grand Slams were played on clay each year instead of just one. Nadal could easily have over 25 Grand Slam titles, if not way more.
Nadal has been unbeatable at the French Open the last few years. He has won the title at Roland Garros the last four years, having not lost a match at the French Open since 2015, where he lost to Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals. Nadal did play in 2016 but was forced to withdraw before his round of 32 match with a wrist injury.
There is one stat in particular that best tells the story of Nadal’s dominance at the French Open. He is 100-2 at the French Open. He has played the French Open every year since 2005, yet he has only lost at the tournament twice in his entire career. It is one of the most insane stats in all of sports, and one that will never be matched in the sport. Simply put, Nadal is unstoppable at Roland Garros.
Unstoppable on clay
Outside of the French Open, Nadal is very tough to beat on clay in general. I will highlight just a few clay tournaments outside the French that Nadal has had the most success in.
In April, Nadal took home his 12th Barcelona title, defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final. Nadal holds an incredible 66-4 record at Barcelona, with his last loss coming to Dominic Thiem in 2019. He has won in Barcelona four of the past five years it has been held, as it was cancelled in 2020 due to COVID-19.
Just last week, Nadal captured his 10th Rome title at the Masters 1000 event. It was another spectacular performance from the clay court master, as he defeated Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic on his way to the title. He holds a 68-7 record in Rome, winning three of the last four years.
There is one other clay court tournament that Nadal has won at least 10 times, and that would be Monte Carlo. He has won at the Masters 1000 event in Monaco a record 11 times. His career record at the tournament is 73-6, and that is after losing in the quarters and semis in the last two years it was held. It is crazy that if you combine Nadal’s career record in his three best clay court tournaments besides the French Open, he is a combined 207-17. He proves time and time again that he is unstoppable on clay.
Coming in with confidence
Nadal has not had the success he is used to on clay in 2021. It is crazy to say that because he has won two of the four clay court tournaments he has played this year, but we usually expect perfection from Rafa. It was also because his two loses in Monte Carlo and Madrid were both in the quarterfinals, a much earlier exit than we expect from Nadal.
Even with these two bad loses, Nadal will be coming into the French with a lot of confidence, having just won his last tournament in Rome last week. On the way to the title, he defeated Jannik Sinner, Denis Shapovalov, Alexander Zverev, Reilly Opelka, and world number one Novak Djokovic. All five of his opponents that he beat are ranked inside the top 50, and four of them are ranked inside the top 20.
Is number 14 coming in 2021 for Nadal?
With Nadal having won the French Open 13 times, how can you pick anyone besides Rafa to win the title in Paris. Some could argue that Djokovic has a good shot to win, but his confidence just took a small hit after losing to Nadal this week, while Nadal’s confidence rose, as he knows he can beat anyone right now entering the tournament.
At the end of the day, when it comes to the best clay court player to ever play the sport, there is no reason to believe that Nadal will not raise the trophy at the French Open once again this year.