4 bold predictions for the French Open

The second Major of the year begins this Sunday. There are a lot of storylines coming into this year’s French Open, most notably Rafa Nadal and Serena Williams, who are each trying to make history in Paris over the next couple weeks. For Nadal, he is looking to win his 14th French Open title, which would extend the tournament record, but most importantly, he would jump ahead of Roger Federer for sole position of first place all time with his 21st Grand Slam. For Serena, this is another opportunity to win her 24th Grand Slam, which would put her in a tie for first all time with Margaret Court.

This tournament also marks the return of Roger Federer to Paris, having last played at the French Open in 2019, losing to Nadal in the semis. On the women’s side, we have two players who both won their last match they played at the French, with Ash Barty winning in 2019 and not playing the event in 2020, while Iga Swiatek is the defending champion.

There is definitely a lot that can happen at Roland Garros over the next couple weeks, but one thing I do expect is a bunch of upsets. Here are my four bold predictions for the French Open this year.

Both Serena and Roger get knocked out before the quarterfinals

This would be a very bold prediction 10 years ago, but the way they are currently playing, I do not see this as that bold. Serena and Roger are getting up there in age, with both of them turning 40 by the end of the year, and this may be the last French Open of both of their careers.

Serena Williams is coming off of a good showing in her last Major, making a run all the way to the semi-finals, before losing to eventual champion Naomi Osaka. Since then, Serena has been very shaky, playing only three matches, and losing two of them. In the WTA 1000 event in Rome, Serena lost in her first match to Nadia Podoroska in straight sets. In her last tournament just a week and a half ago, Serena won her first match against qualifier Lisa Pigato, before losing to Katerina Siniakova, who is currently ranked 68 in the world. Last year, Serena only made it to the second round of the French, withdrawing due to injury, and has not made the quarterfinals in Paris since 2016. I expect another disappointing result at the French Open for Serena this year, and see her falling in the second or third round.

I feel like the part of this prediction that is somewhat bold is that Roger Federer will lose before the quarters, considering he has made the quarterfinals at the French the last two times he has played it. However, Federer has only played at Roland Garros twice in the last six years, and it is a little surprising to see him play this year, especially since he does not look prepared on clay, and he usually takes the clay season off to focus on the grass season and Wimbledon. I believe that this could be his last time playing at the French Open, as he will have his chance to say goodbye to the fans in Paris. I hope I am wrong, but the fact that he is committed to playing the French without much preparation is surprising. He has only played two tournaments in 2021 and has a 1-2 record this year, with his one win coming in Doha against Daniel Evans. For Federer, I can see him making a deep run like he always does at a Major, but I can also see him losing in the first round. With the little preparation he has had coming into the tournament, I think it is more likely that he falls in one of the first two rounds than makes a deep run to the quarters or semis.

New Grand Slam champion on the women’s side at the French Open

Considering Ash Barty, Iga Swiatek, and Naomi Osaka are all playing at the French this year, I believe this is a very bold prediction. The reason I believe that this will happen is because of one name specifically, and that is Aryna Sabalenka.

I have no doubt in my mind that Sabalenka will win multiple Grand Slams by the time her career is over, and I think she has a great chance of winning her first at the French Open this year. Last year at the French she made the round of 32, which was her best result yet in Paris. I have seen a drastic improvement in her game as of late and said at the beginning of the year that she would be the one to watch out for in 2021.

She has proven why she deserves the number four ranking in the world currently, winning two WTA titles in 2021 so far. She started the year off by winning the WTA 500 event in Abu Dhabi, defeating five players in the top 50 in the tournament. She then won her second tournament earlier this month, where she beat world number one Ash Barty in the final to take the WTA 1000 title in Madrid. When Sabalenka is playing her best, I do not see anyone in the world that can beat her, besides maybe Barty and Swiatek, but even that may be a stretch.

Other players that have yet to win a Major that could win their first at the French is world number six Elina Svitolina, world number 10 Karolina Pliskova, and 17-year-old American Coco Gauff.

Novak Djokovic loses before the semi-finals

This could be my boldest prediction yet, but I see Djokovic losing before the semi-finals at the French Open. I believe that it is not between Nadal and Djokovic this year for the title, and even though I see Nadal making the final, Djokovic will not be there with him.

There are three players outside of Nadal that can beat Djokovic at the French Open next week. Those three include Stefanos Tsitsipas, Dominic Thiem, and Alexander Zverev. I believe that Djokovic is not at the Australian Open level peak he was at the beginning of the year, and is definitely beatable coming into the French.

I see Djokovic most likely losing in the quarterfinals, as I believe that will be the first time he will have to play one of Tsitsipas, Thiem, or Zverev. I believe that playing Tsitsipas would be the worst news for Djokovic in the quarters, as he is the hottest player coming into the tournament. Even though I can see Djokovic losing to both Zverev or Thiem, Tsitsipas is the one I am most confident in to beat Djokovic. Out of the three, if Djokovic has to play Thiem first, I think there is still a good chance Djokovic will win, but if he has to play one of the other two, I see Djokovic losing.

Only one player outside the top 10 will make the quarterfinals in the men’s draw

There are genuinely five players that can win this tournament on the men’s side, even though I still expect Nadal to get it done in the end. Those four other players are all ranked inside the top six though. I do not see any of them getting upset in the early rounds and believe we will see the best of the best in the quarterfinals.

The reason why I see one player outside the top 10 making the quarters as opposed to none is because I do not give world number two Daniil Medvedev much of a chance on clay, and do not see Federer making a deep run in just his third tournament of the year. There are also really good young players just outside the top 10 that I can see making a quarterfinal run. Those players include Casper Ruud, Jannik Sinner, and Felix Auger-Aliassime. All three of these players are capable of beating top 10 players and making a deep run at the French, however, I only see one of them doing it. The rest of the quarterfinal spots will be occupied by top 10 players, as I see Nadal, Djokovic, Thiem, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Schwartzman, and Rublev taking seven of the eight spots, leaving one spot for a young star outside the top 10.