2022 US Open: The Four ‘Tiers’ Of Contender For the Men’s Title

In theory, the U.S. Open Series is practically a perfectly designed lead-in for a major tournament. The palette cleanser that is the Washington 500, followed by back-to-back blockbuster Masters 1000 events in Montreal and Cincinnati should, again in theory, provide ample information as to who’s on the way to stating their claim to the crown at the US Open in September. I stress the phrase ‘in theory’, as the 2022 US Open Series, now essentially at its conclusion (with all respect to those playing in a fairly quiet 250 event in Winston-Salem this week), has no doubt left the tennis world with far more questions than answers heading into Flushing Meadows on August 29th, particularly on the ATP side.

With both Masters events going home with unseeded entrants (hat tips to Pablo Carreño-Busta and Borna Coric, respectively), momentum has eluded most of the tour’s biggest names, leaving the final major of the year looking unusually attainable for just about any name in the field. In an attempt to make sense amongst the chaos, I’ve managed to (tenuously) group the rapidly widening field of contenders into a collection of somewhat distinct tiers ahead of next week’s opening day. Let’s dig into the four

TIER ONE: OUR FRAGILE FAVOURITES

MEMBERS: DANIIL MEDVEDEV (1) & RAFAEL NADAL (2)

For those of us who have followed the tour week-in-week-out over the past two years, it has become evident, if it wasn’t already the case in years past, that the majors are just different. While the Masters 1000 circuit has been an absolute free-for-all, with the last 15 Masters tournaments wielding 11 unique winners, the four Major tournaments have proved far less kind to outsider hopefuls. The majors have been, from a competitive standpoint, rather unforgiving in the last 23 months, with seven of the eight crowns being used to pad the staggering collections of either Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, bringing their major titles to unprecedented tallies of 23 and 21, respectively. The one circuit-breaker in this run; now world no.1 Daniil Medvedev’s breakthrough at last year’s US Open, where he denied Djokovic of a historic Calendar Slam achievement in a surprisingly routine victory in the final.

With Djokovic likely locked out of competing in this years action at Flushing Meadows, once again due to his vaccination status (a fate he seems to be accepting far more gracefully than he did in Melbourne back in January) and a notable dearth of major experience among the rest of the contending field (we’ll file them in a minute), Nadal and Medvedev stand out on paper as not only the tournament’s top two seeds, but presumptive favourites to run back their now legendary five-set war from the final in 2019.

However, questions loom large over both players; Nadal has played just one competitive match since withdrawing from the Wimbledon semi-final with an abdominal injury back in July, and Medvedev’s usually white-hot form on the US hardcourts has been observably absent during this years swing, punctuated by an alarmingly erratic serving performance in a loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Cincinnati semi-final last Saturday. At the end of the day, their respective title winning experiences (coupled with the quality they each displayed at the Australian Open earlier this year) elevate both a notch above the rest of the chasing field at this stage. But this is far from a procession for either man and while an early exit for either would come as a surprise, it appears a far more realistic prospect than with your typical pair of title favourites given the circumstances surrounding them.

TIER TWO: NEXT MEN UP

MEMBERS: CARLOS ALCARAZ (3), STEFANOS TSITSIPAS (4) & NICK KYRGIOS (24)

Of the men who occupy the chasing field, these are the three that appear to be the best equipped to take advantage of one or both of our bruised frontrunners. While on paper, the similarities between the three are fairly sparse, they all share one quality that nudges them above the rest; their ability to go toe-to-toe with the top two and come out the other side victorious. Each of these three players has a notable win over either Nadal or Medvedev in the last six months, and of the remaining field, these are the three that have each demonstrated a ceiling level of play good enough to beat any given player (not named Novak Djokovic) on any given day. Now, each brings to the table serious questions of their own that deserve to be highlighted. Tsitsipas has been sniffing a maiden major triumph for several years and has multiple monumental wins on the big stage, but the man has genuine scars at major level, primarily stemming from his five-set defeat in the French Open final last year to Djokovic (during which he at one point lead two sets to love) and has bizarrely never made it to the second week in New York. Kyrgios is undoubtedly playing the best tennis of his entire career and on his day can cosplay as the absolute best player in the world, but he shares Tsitsipas’ less-than-stellar US Open record and his, ehem, volatile temperament makes him a tough bet to survive seven straight rounds in the pressure cooker (though his run to the Wimbledon final just over a month ago might have cooled some of those concerns). And Alcaraz, despite all of the fanfare surrounding his sudden meteoric rise in 2022 (peaking with his magical Madrid run where he sent Nadal, Djokovic and world no.2 Alexander Zverev packing back-to-back-to-back), is still yet to navigate past the quarter-finals of any major in his still blossoming career. Still, if anyone is going to make a dent in the Nadal/Medvedev duopoly, these three have to be the most likely disruptors.

TIER THREE: IS IT THEIR TIME?

MEMBERS: FELIX AUGER-ALIASSME (6), TAYLOR FRITZ (10) & JANNIK SINNER (11)

I desperately wanted to name this group ‘The Sniffers’ but wasn’t sure the intended meaning would come across and, ya know, you’ve got to be careful in this climate. I use the term because each of these three young stars has been seriously ‘sniffing’ around a significant breakthrough in the last 12 months. Each has seriously threatened Nadal, Djokovic or Medvedev at a major tournament in this past year, all dragging one or more of them into the deep waters of a fifth set before narrowly succumbing to their more experienced foes. None have yet had what you might call a ‘moment’ on the big stage and none have arguably shown the pure top level world-beating form on a big stage, which is why right now I have them just a tick below their contemporaries in Tier Two. And with only one major semi final appearance between the three of them thus far in the bank, it might feel like a pretty sizable leap for any of them to find their hands on the US Open trophy in three Sunday’s time.

But it feels like all three are getting closer and closer with each coming slam, and the gap between each of them and those at the very top is growing slimmer by the day. Without a clear, healthy in-form favourite standing in the way, it’s not all that unrealistic that this US Open could be the ‘moment’ where it all comes together for one of these three young stars.

TIER FOUR: THE OPPORTUNISTS

MEMBERS: CASPER RUUD (5), CAMERON NORRIE (7), HUBERT HURKACZ (8), PABLO CARRENO BUSTA (12), MATTEO BERRETTINI (13) & BORNA CORIC (25)

Here lies every other player that, in my opinion, has a genuinely feasible chance of not just contending, but actually winning the US Open in 2022. They’re all fine players; after all, one needs to be exceptional to even find themselves in such a conversation regardless of the perceived weakness of the ruling class. However, they all share one common trait; they’re all going to need help. By that, I mean simply, it’s incredibly unlikely that any of these men will be able to put together seven straight wins over a best-of-five distance over the top players in good form.

Coric and Carreño Busta both played absolutely scintillating tennis in their respective Masters title wins this month, but best-of-five is a different beast, and neither has demonstrated the elite level play at the majors that would suggest them capable of beating Nadal or Medvedev in a second week clash. Norrie and Hurkacz are both rock-solid top 10 players with Masters titles and major semi-finals on their resumes, but they share patchy slam records (to say the least) and a sudden leap in level that would guide them past more talented players seems unlikely. Berrettini and Ruud might feel the most aggrieved to be demoted to this tier, as both have already come within one week of calling themselves ‘major champions’ in the past, but a quick glance over their records reveals both were fairly fortunate in how major names fell by the wayside, and neither was forced to face an opponent with of a higher seed than themselves until the final. And don’t get me wrong, that doesn’t diminish the achievement, but it does make me less optimistic of their chances to repeat the feat, unless provided with similar fortune here.

All six of these men absolutely, at their best, can win this tournament if it descends into a Hunger Games-style free-for-all (which it very well might). But they’re each going to need some kind of leg up; a handy draw, a big early upset in their quarter, an injury withdrawal etc., to clear the way. If that happens, none of them are to be counted out.

Note: All seeds marked pre-emptifively anticipating the withdrawal of Novak Djokovic prior to the draw being set.