Which player was more lethal at their prime: Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic?

An often asked question in professional sport is which athlete was the best at their “prime”. In basketball, the discussion often centres around prime Jordan being the greatest player in the history of men’s basketball. In tennis, debate has recently shifted in favour of Novak Djokovic having the highest “prime’ in all of men’s tennis. However, there are a number of pundits who are not sure that Novak Djokovic at his prime could definitively beat 2006 Federer. At best, it is more likely that both players would have had an identical head-to-head record.

In relation to 2006, many sports fans often describe this “aura’ about Roger Federer which few athletes have managed to possess. In golf, Tiger Woods is a likely candidate for an athlete who single-handedly had a choke hold on their sport. For both athletes, if truth be told, often it was not about who would win- but who would finish second place. Despite all discussions about the “G.O.A.T’ debate, one key statistic remains Federer’s, and is unlikely to ever be broken by anyone else in the big 3: most weeks at world number 1. Federer spent an unfathomable 237 straight weeks at world number 1 (Feb 2004- August 2008). In contrast Novak Djokovic managed 122 consecutive weeks at number 1 (July 2014- October 2016).

Another overlooked metric is the number of titles won by both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer at their prime. Federer’s 12 titles in a season (2006) has still also not been broken by any player in 16 years. However, there is a real argument that Novak’s 11 titles (2015) are more impressive, given he won more ‘big’ titles that season. As well, there is an argument that Novak’s competition was tougher during his prime season. What is also astonishing is that Rafael Nadal was there competing against both of these players in their prime seasons. Between 2005 and early 2009, the Federer-Nadal rivalry was the main event in men’s tennis at both Masters 1000 and grand slam level. Funnily enough, between 2011- early 2014, Djokovic and Nadal featured in some of the biggest grand slam rivalries in men’s tennis history.

However, back on the subject of prime Federer vs prime Djokovic. When considering the ‘prime’ of both athletes, a number of key factors should be taken into consideration:

• most grand slams/ titles during the prime period
• greatest win percentage during prime period
• most consecutive weeks at number 1 during prime period
• most consecutive wins during prime period
• highest ‘ELO ‘ ranking

At present, it is almost undeniable that Novak Djokovic has had the better career overall compared to Roger Federer. However, in terms of their “prime” level, there is a real case for Roger Federer.

During Federer’s ‘prime’, here are some of they key statistics in his favour:

• Between 2004-2010, Federer made 23 consecutive grand slam semi finals (a record that stands alone). To put some context, Novak has 14 while Nadal has 7.
• Federer achieved 10 consecutive grand slam finals at his prime. Novak has 6 while Nadal has 5.
• During his prime, Federer won 24 consecutive matches against top 10 players.

During Novak’s prime, here are some of the key statistics which work heavily in his favour:

• 43 consecutive tennis match wins. This is greater than the 41 from Roger Federer at his prime
• 10 big titles in a season (stands alone)
• 31 wins against top 10 players in a season (stands alone)
• 15 straight finals reached (stands alone)
• Defeated every player in the top 10 in a single season
• Held all 4 majors at the same time
• Most accumulated points at world number 1 (16950). Federer on the other hand had 15903 points. However, the points given to tournaments were inflated in 2009, so this can be quite skewed.

So, if you were to pick the player who had the highest prime, would it be Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic?