Is it time to turn the alarm bells on regarding next gen’s poor performance at 3 of the 4 biggest tournaments?

Over the past 5 ½ years, a contender to win a major and defeat Nadal or Djokovic at their favourite grand slams has been non-existent.  Dating back to January 2017, nobody outside of Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal has managed to touch either of the 3 biggest tournaments that exist on the calendar.  An astonishing bit of information that many pundits seem to leave out is that the over the past 17 grand slams at either the Australian Open, French Open or Wimbledon, nobody besides Nadal, Djokovic or Federer has been victorious. Nevertheless, year after year, ‘next gen’ from 2017 to present have been touted as the group that has arrived to finally take over the sport. However, it must be asked what exactly has been accomplished by ‘next gen’- who have not managed to win 3 of the 4 of the biggest majors on offer each season, for 6 years straight

In the history of sport, and even more so, in tennis, it is nigh impossible that we will ever witness 3 players who will reign over the sport the way that Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer did in their hey-day. We’ve seen time and time again the kind of comeback that Rafael Nadal has cooked up. Whether he is in front or behind, the word implosion is not synonymous with Rafael Nadal. Djokovic, on the other hand, is a black mamba. Cold blooded on court under extremely high pressure situations, you do not want to be trapped in the stadium with Djokovic with a lead in grand slam final. Serving out that final set against him is almost akin to trying to kill a snake once and for all. Off court, Djokovic couldn’t be a nicer person. On court, he is a snake looking to pounce. It is exactly this mentality that is required to win 5 or more grand slams, let alone 10, 15 or 20.

No player amongst next gen has actually beaten either one of Nadal or Djokovic and also gone on to win the Australian Open, Roland Garros or Wimbledon. Every year, the same situation seems to continually keep repeating itself in these 3 majors. The only player outside of the “big 4” who managed to beat Nadal or Djokovic at either Australian Open, Roland Garros or Wimbledon and also win a major is Stan Wawrinka. Unfortunately, Stan Wawrinka is 37 years old, and thus there is no expectation for him to replicate those feats.

So who do we look to at this year’s French Open and Wimbledon? Every player that has won a grand slam has seemed to become broken or physically not ready to compete consistently at slam level. When Dominic Thiem finally broke that barrier and won his first major title, his body suddenly collapsed and he hasn’t been the same since, almost 3 years on. If it’s not physical, it’s mental. Dominic Thiem was excellent in the mental department, and did not let losing 3 grand slam finals play on his confidence. The good news is he seems to be very slowly getting back to a professional level of tennis.

However, there’s another category to be mindful of: top players who can go incredibly deep but haven’t exhibited the killer instinct under pressure situations. Ironically, Medvedev, despite his results at the French Open and Wimbledon in the past, has a whole lot of ice in his veins- and is one of the few next gen players who could find another level against Nadal and Djokovic on hard courts like the Australia Open. That is almost 12 months away though. Stefanos Tsitsipas,  on the other hand, gave up a 2-sets-to -love lead in a grand slam final to Novak Djokovic. He then has proceeded to lose his last 4 straight head-to head matchups against the Serbian maestro. Is this the level we should expect from the very best tennis players in the world who are nearing (or are above) 25 years of age? It seems that even at their physical peak, the next generation is seemingly no match for 35+ year old Djokovic and Nadal at the Australian Open, Roland Garros or Wimbledon. Since 2019, nobody besides Djokovic or Nadal has even managed to win either of these 3 big grand slams.

This is a real concern. Time is certainly ticking. While next gen might win a major here and there, potentially at the US Open, are they ready to make a mark at 3/4 of the other majors on offer? The Australian Open, Wimbledon and Roland Garros champions lists over the last 5 years has still remained unbelievably similar to the list from15 years ago. If we are to praise the next gen as the contenders, should they not be obligated to routinely win at least one of either the Australian Open, Roland Garros or Wimbledon?

All in all, do you think a current player can defeat Nadal or Djokovic AND go to win the French Open or Wimbledon?