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ATP French Open 2023: Two tournament predictions

By Nicholas Nathanson

PARIS, FRANCE - APRIL 21: Main court of Roland Garros, Philippe Chatrier also known as Court Central is pictured during a press conference of French Open tennis tournament director Amelie Mauresmo (not seen) at the Roland Garros stadium in Paris, France on April 21, 2023. The French Open tennis tournament will take place from May 28 to June 11, 2023. (Photo by Mustafa Yalcin/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
PARIS, FRANCE - APRIL 21: Main court of Roland Garros, Philippe Chatrier also known as Court Central is pictured during a press conference of French Open tennis tournament director Amelie Mauresmo (not seen) at the Roland Garros stadium in Paris, France on April 21, 2023. The French Open tennis tournament will take place from May 28 to June 11, 2023. (Photo by Mustafa Yalcin/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images) /
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We are just two weeks away from the onset of this year’s French Open. So many questions are looming in the air, including the status of 14-time winner Rafael Nadal, and whether he will be healthy enough to play.

Throughout the last few weeks of the clay swing, we’ve been treated to some unprecedented runs from the likes of #46 Dusan Lajovic, #69 Zhizhen Zhang, and most recently, #28 Jan-Lennard Struff.

With two weeks left before the tournament begins, here are two predictions.

  1. Jan-Lennard Struff finally breaks through to a French Open QF and his first QF slam appearance. 

Struff has made it to the 4th round of the French Open twice, in 2019 and 2021. However, this is his best chance to take the next step. This year on clay, he is currently 9-4, with wins against #4 Casper Ruud, #5 Stefanos Tstisipas, and #18 Alex de Minaur. Struff also just became the first Lucky Loser (LL) to make it to the finals in an ATP Masters 1000 event.

Struff is playing some high quality tennis at the moment and has made at least the quarterfinals in both ATP clay masters thus far.

If he hopes to continues his success in the ensuing weeks he will need to hit his first serve consistently, and not sporadically as he did against #2 Carlos Alcaraz last week.

Given his recent level of play and his consistency, I believe Struff will make that leap continuing his torrid stretch on the clay swing.

   2. Jannik Sinner will play in the French Open Finals this year.

While he’s already battled so many injuries in his early career, there is no denying Jannik Sinner’s talent when he is on court. The ATP #8 is 5-1 on clay this season.

At the French Open, Sinner has made the fourth round all three tries. He advanced once to the quarterfinals in 2020, while losing to Nadal the year after, and retiring to #6 Andrey Rublev, this past year.

Assuming he has recovered well from his injury, Sinner will immediately emerge as a Top 3 candidate to win this year’s tournament.

With his experience on clay, consistency and athleticism on court, and the possibility of no Nadal, Roland Garros is for Sinner’s taking.

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