Are we in the middle of one of the weakest ever eras in men’s tennis?

Over the past 24 months, tennis has experienced a number of very unpredictable results, post-pandemic. Last night’s match between Milos Raonic and Frances Tiafoe is a testament to the very era we are experiencing. Former world number 3 Milos Raonic, an ageing great who has barely played any matches in 2 years- managed to defeat Frances Tiafoe (a top 10 player) in 3 sets at a Masters 100 event. Furthermore, in this era, you will be hard pressed to find a more baffling list of big title champions than what we have seen post-Covid. Nikolas Basilashvili v Cameron Norrie, for instance, was the headline act at the hardcourt Masters 1000 final at Indian Wells in 2021. This tournament is oft described as ‘the 5th slam’- an event that Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have won a combined 13 times. Just last year, Borna Coric came from the abyss, ranked 152nd in the world, to win the Cincinnati Masters. Similarly, Pablo Carreno Busta won the Montreal Masters a week prior to this.

Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, almost nobody could’ve predicted that Cam Norrie and Casper Ruud would hold positions inside the world’s top 10 rankings. Post-Covid, the 40th ranked players of yesterday became the top 10 players of today. Players like Norrie and Fritz were once cannon fodder for the big 3 at majors-often exiting at the 2nd and 3rd rounds respectively.  Additionally, we have seen a deluge of random players make deep runs at grand slams over the past 3 years, post-Coronavirus. Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton were both semi-finalists at this year’s Australian Open. Jiri Lehecka was also a quarterfinalist at this year’s edition. At the 2021 US Open, Lloyd Harris and Botic van de Zandschulp both made the quarterfinals of the US Open.

Just last year, Casper Ruud was just 1 win away from the unthinkable : securing the world number 1 position despite having not won a single title above the ATP 250 level.  For a player who has never won a tournament above ATP 250 level (the lowest level of men’s professional competition, 1 tier above the almost semi-professional Challenger Tour), it is almost unfathomable that the most prestigious position in the world was his for the taking. Despite his poor record in finals above the ATP 250 level, one thing must be acknowledged: Casper Ruud had picked up enough points at every level of competition, without ever being the outright winner in any of the highest levels of competition.

In years gone by, tennis had been blessed with phenomenal players who had never touched the number 2 ranking- let alone the number 1 ranking. Stan Wawrinka, winner of 3 grand slams, never peaked at any higher than world number 3. Juan Martin del Potro, winner of the 2009 US Open against an almost peak Federer, also never touched the number 2 ranking in men’s tennis. David Nalbandian, one of the most electric baseliners in men’s tennis history, never became world number 2- despite playing at a tennis level which went toe-to-toe with prime Nadal and prime Roger Federer.

However, Casper Ruud defying expectations with his ranking is not a first time occurrence in the slightest. Almost 18 months ago, Casper Ruud clinched the number 8 ranking in the world- despite never making it to the quarterfinal of any slam at that point. In his whole career up to that particular point in fact, he had only once made it to the 4th round of grand slam. To add to this further, Casper Ruud also never even made a Masters 1000 final at that point. In history, only Ivan Lendl and Marcelo Rios had ever clinched the world number 1 spots without winning a slam. However- Ivan Lendl won the equivalent of the ATP finals, as well as 5 Masters 1000 titles. Marcelo Rios also won 3 Masters 1000 titles. In all of history, those are the only 2 players who have ever come remotely close to achieving the world number 1 spot without winning a major.

Nevertheless, it seems men’s tennis has reached a period where without the competition of a healthy Nadal or Djokovic, it may well be Carlos Alcaraz’s tournaments to lose. Even in this year’s Australian Open, a version of Novak Djokovic hobbling on 1 good hamstring was too much to handle for the number 3 ranked player in the world entering the prime of his career. Even Daniil Medvedev’s mighty effort to topple Djokovic in a grand slam final has been a hard act to follow- unable to add to his collection and win multiple majors in 2022 or 2023. This is all despite the fact that a 35 year old Nadal and 34 year old Djokovic added 2 and 3 majors each to their tallies since then.

In the event that tennis does return to a period of unilateral domination (similar to the early-mid 2000s where Roger Federer made 10 consecutive grand slams finals)- will the competition be able to take titles off the main contender? In the mid 2000s, very rarely did an opponent manage to beat Roger Federer in ATP or grand slams final. One person at that time, then then young Spaniard, Rafael Nadal, was able to rise to the occasion and knock Federer off his perch. However, with the results Alcaraz has experienced already, who is to know if the rest of the tour would be able to keep up with a 24 year old Alcaraz, 4 years from now?

All in all, do you believe tennis is entering a weak era of men’s tennis?