Tier 2: Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud and Lorenzo Musetti
The four men in this tier are the most likely names to snatch the French Open if both Alcaraz and Sinner falter, but they share very little in common beyond that shared status.
Let’s get Djokovic out of the way first; out of respect for his accomplishments at this event, both recent and historical, he owns a spot here even though he has been dumped out in the first round in five of his last six tournaments.
Also, we cannot forget that he is 2-0 against Alcaraz over their last two meetings, with one of those matches coming over best-of-five at the Australian Open in January, and the other at this exact venue, in the Olympic Games Gold Medal match last August.
Alexander Zverev is similarly woeful in form relative to his standards, and while the world No. 3 is just a year removed from being a set away from a title here in Paris, he feels a very long way away from that form coming into this year's edition.
While his Grand Slam record over the past 12 months (runners-up plates in Paris and Melbourne) has to be respected, he has consistently underperformed recently, with just one semi-final or better result in 10 tournaments since January’s Australian Open. This doesn’t feel like his moment, but it's hard to drop him lower than this due to his outstanding record here over the last three years.
Speaking of which, two-time French Open finalist Casper Ruud finds himself in a similar predicament. However, a surprisingly fruitful week in Madrid a few weeks prior has raised optimism in his chances as a dark horse contender.
The Norwegian’s 14-3 record at Roland-Garros over the past three years is as good as any non-winner in that span, and his flurry of form that led him to a maiden Masters title in the Spanish capital shouldn’t be ignored. But the aforementioned battering at the hands of Sinner in Rome rightfully doused his French Open claim with cold water.
Ruud will fly under the radar as he often does; he will likely still be hanging around in the second week, and if the top names fall, he will fancy his chances of cleaning up the scraps.
The most intriguing name in this group has to be Lorenzo Musetti, the new man in the mix following an excellent F-SF-SF salvo in the three clay Masters events this year. Two of those losses came against Alcaraz, and while entering nail-biter territory, the 23-year-old Italian has proven that he belongs in the conversation at the top of the sport, at least on this surface.
What might hold him back is both a lack of experience, as he has just one major semi-final to his name, and a lack of raw, irrational self-confidence that a young player sometimes needs to break through at the most elite level.
A Musetti title would be the most exciting option in this second tier due to his youth and potential relative to the rest of the field. Still, with no big titles currently to his name, it feels like vaulting straight to a major title might be a bridge too far at this stage.