Jannik Sinner is done. At least, he is done for three months. He could return in early May after serving a suspension for two failed drug tests last March at Indian Wells. He was found to be initially innocent of any wrongdoing, but the World Anti-Doping Agency appealed, and fearing a longer suspension, Sinner settled with the WADA for a shorter ban.
That might sound oversimplified, but it might also be the truth. No one found guilty of failing a drug test in tennis should be able to settle their discipline, right If someone is found guilty, their length of suspension should not be negotiable. At least, in theory. Sinner seemed to be, so anyone arguing there is a cover-up in tennis as far as protecting top players might have evidence in his case.
But could another player take advantage of Sinner not playing and overtake him in the rankings? And, if that happens, could that player hold on to the top ranking for a long time? Yes. And, well...no.
Can anyone overtake Jannik Sinner for ATP No. 1 during his three-month suspension?
Alexander Zverev has a decent chance of becoming, for the first time, No. 1 in Sinner's absence. He was trending toward doing that in 2022 before an ankle injury at the French Open cost him a lot of time. He is still trying to fully recover in the rankings.
Sinner currently leads him by a vast amount. The difference is 3,195 points. The Italian will drop 1,600 points in his absence, though. In theory, that makes the difference more like 1,800 points. Zverev will drop 900 points in the next few months, so he needs to play well enough to make up about 2,400 points.
Could he do that? Sure. The German will play in four Masters 1000 events (Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, and Madrid). He did not win any of those events last year. He only reached the semifinals in one (Miami). In other words, he could make up a lot of points quickly.
Still, Zverev's best surface is not hard courts, and the clay court tournaments do not get underway until April. He might struggle to make up much ground. The same holds true for ATP No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz because he will have even more points to make up. Plus, he won Indian Wells last year and will drop 1,000 points from that.
Most likely, Jannik Sinner will still be the ATP No. 1 when he returns in early May. He could quickly gain points, too, as he did not play in the Rome Masters in 2024, and he did not reach the finals of the French Open. Not only should Sinner still be No. 1 in June, but he might have actually extended his point lead.