The match wasn't expected to be close, and yet, Caty McNally stunned tennis fans when she broke Aryna Sabalenka in the first game of their third-round match at the Miami Open. Maybe the American would pull an upset for the ages, only...she wouldn't.
The Belarusian broke in the next game and then held to get to a 2-1 lead. Even if McNally held service in the next game, which she did, the match was still likely to be one-sided. Beating Sabalenka isn't done in one game; it takes an entire high-effort match to beat the WTA No. 1. Even the other current greats struggle with the feat.
What was clear at the beginning was that Sabalenka was not at her sharpest. She missed a forehand she wouldn't normally do, and she kept McNally within arm's reach at the beginning. The American had to hope for more unexpectedly underwhelming play from the Belarusian. No guarantee existed that it would keep occurring.
Aryna Sabalenka holds on to defeat Caty McNally at the 2026 Miami Open
After breaking McNally to get to 4-2, Sabalenka played shockingly ill-prepared in her next service game. She tried to play the net against the American, which is McNally's strength, and the American won the point. Later, at break point, Sabalenka had a chance to get back to deuce, but the Belarusian hit the ball straight to McNally, who put the ball away for a break.
McNally then held as Sabalenka kept overplaying points, and Miami Open fans might have started wondering if they were going to see the second huge upset of the day after Sebastian Korda defeated Carlos Alcaraz earlier in the day. The logic would have been sound.
Every time Aryna Sabalenka had a chance to take firm control of the match, she shockingly couldn't, and the fault seemed almost entirely her own through unforced errors. Still, one might have assumed it was only a matter of time until that happened.
In fact, that is what happened at 4-all. Sabalenka held as she began landing her previously overwrought forehands, and then got another break with relative ease to take the first set 6-4. As well as McNally was playing, she doesn't have the skillset of Sabalenka. Maybe no one else on the WTA tour does.
The first game of the second set proved the match was going to be far from Sabalenka's best. She took the game but allowed McNally to get to deuce. If nothing else, the WTA No. 1 could take away that she would likely play better the rest of the Miami Open than she did in the third round.
McNally simply didn't have the consistency or power to keep up with Sabalenka, and the Belarusian got a couple of breaks to win the second set relatively easily, 6-2. The match wasn't as easy as the score might imply, however.
The next match for Aryna Sabalenka won't be easy, however. She will face Zheng Qinwen, who is working her way back from an injury in 2025, in the round of 16. She is a former top-five player capable of greatness. The WTA No. 1 leads the head-to-head 7-1, but the Chinese player won the next-to-last meeting in Rome in 2025.