The top of the WTA tour is seemingly beginning to separate itself a bit from the rest of the field, at least until the clay-court season begins in April. Aryna Sabalenka is clearly No. 1, but the second-best player could be Coco Gauff or Elena Rybakina, depending on the day. That makes the Gauff versus Sabalenka Miami Open final extremely intriguing.
Moreover, the head-to-head rivalry is even at six wins apiece. Gauff is playing at an exceedingly high level, and Sabalenka is playing her normal form, which is always elite. The winner of the 2026 final might be determined by two things, of which only one is physical.
The Belarusian has 23 titles in her career, but she should have even more. She constantly makes deep runs at tournaments, which is how she is able to maintain her large lead in the rankings, but she doesn't always close the deal. She is 23-20 in her career in finals.
Predicting who will win the 2026 Miami Open final between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka
The American seems more ready to play a higher level of tennis once she gets to a final. She has 12 fewer titles than Sabalenka (to be fair, Gauff is also almost six full years younger than the WTA No. 1), but has also played in 29 fewer finals. Gauff is 11-3 in the last possible match of an event.
The difference in records implies that while both players are great, Coco Gauff is capable of raising her game a bit more than Sabalenka in the most important match of a tournament. That theory will, of course, be tested at the Miami Open.
The other aspect that could decide the match is Gauff's elite athleticism, which allows her to chase down balls that mere mortals are unable to. This came into play in the 2023 US Open final when Sabalenka hit so many presumed winners that Gauff was able to get to, keeping the point alive, and eventually taking the title.
That was an astonishing display of defensive tennis, which Gauff is capable of but Sabalenka isn't. Of course, if Gauff struggles with movement at all, the Belarusian could simply push her off the court with ease. It is the not knowing that should make tennis fans salivate at how the final could unfold.
The two players have split their last five meetings, and one does not dominate the other on any particular surface. For Coco Gauff to win, she needs to stay in points with excellent defense and not beat herself with her awful penchant for too many double faults. Aryna Sabalenka just needs to play her usual power tennis. The guess is that Gauff wins in three sets.