Indian Wells 2026 is shaping up as many people thought. The two players arguably playing the best tennis on the WTA tour appear headed to a clash in the final. Still, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have some work to do to get there.
For Rybakina, Indian Wells has been mostly boom or bust. She won the title in 2023, but hasn't made it past the fourth round in any other years. Her win is one better than Sabalenka's, though, who has reached the final in two of the last three years, but has yet to take home the trophy.
Again, though, we aren't there yet. Both of the other players in the semifinals are playing brilliant tennis. That is especially true of 31-year-old Elina Svitolina, who is undergoing a career resurgence. She cannot be counted out of any match right now.
Who will win the women's semifinals at Indian Wells 2026
Aryna Sabalenka versus Linda Noskova
Noskova has only faced one seeded player so far, and that was No. 31 Alexandra Eala. Not that the Czech is without talent, but the 21-year-old certainly is. She just probably isn't ready to beat Sabalenka on a hard court. Noskova should be a real threat at Wimbledon, however.
The Belarusian has entered two tournaments in 2026. She took the title in Brisbane and fell to Elena Rybakina in the final of the Australian Open. She is well ahead in the rankings and is likely to stay there for quite some time.
She has yet to drop a set at Indian Wells, overpowering many of her opponents while showing some excellent court coverage, and she won't drop a set to Noskova either.
Elena Rybakina versus Elina Svitolina
Whatever Svitolina did in the offseason worked. After struggling through the summer of 2025 when she was bounced out of the first round in her first match at the Cincinnati Open and US Open, she began this year with a win in Auckland, a semifinal run in Melbourne, and made the final at the Dubai Championships.
She is back in the top 10 on the WTA tour and playing some of the best tennis of her career. The issue is that she is facing a player doing the same.
Elena Rybakina, who has moved up to No. 2 in the live rankings, won the Australian Open and has 11 straight wins over top 10 players after defeating Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals. When she is playing her best on a hard court, she is arguably the best player on tour. The guess is that she's in form versus Svitolina and wins in three sets.