No other players on the ATP tour have any chance of catching Jannik Sinner as ATP No. 1 during the Italian's suspension for failed drug tests in March of 2024 than Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz. To have any chance of getting close to Sinner's ranking, though, both Zverev and Alcaraz need to take advantage of all the chances they have in the next few months.
This week, the German and Spaniard failed to do much in the way of helping themselves. Both played in 500 events that they should have been expected to win (if there is no Sinner, Zverev and Alcaraz should be the favorites at any tournaments they are playing apart from one another), but neither made it past the quarterfinals. Zverev's loss might have been the most shocking.
Playing on clay, perhaps Zverev's best surface, at the Rio Open (a tournament he appeared to choose to play in because it gave him the best chance to make up points on Sinner), the German lost to ATP No. 86 Francisco Comesana.
Jannik Sinner has a successful week because of Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz's failures
The Argentine has never won an ATP title, and his career record entering the tournament was 4-10. Even if he goes on to win in Rio after defeating Zverev, he would still have a career-losing record.
In the live ATP rankings, Zverev did not lose any points, but that is part of the issue. The German began the Rio event nearly 3,200 points behind Sinner. There is little time for failure, and he should have been able to take full advantage against a fairly weak field in the tournament.
Alcaraz's field was much tougher at the Qatar Open, and his loss to Jiri Lehecka should bear no shame. Lehecka is a good young player, but he is not as good as the Spaniard. The fact that Lehecka lost his next match in the Qatar semifinals might make the loss sting a bit more for Alcaraz. He did pick up 100 points during the event, but he could have done so much better.
The fact appears to be that neither Alcaraz nor Zverev are going to be in any position to reach Sinner before the Italian returns in early May. The real battle will likely be for ATP No. 2 where the Spaniard trails the German by 625 points. Sinner's lead is so big that there is almost as much of a difference between him and Zverev as there is between Zverev and ATP No. 4 Taylor Fritz.