Jessica Pegula defeated a determined up-and-coming star in Alexandra Eala in a difficult three-set match in the Miami Open semifinals. Earlier in the day, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka booked her ticket to the finals with a quick straight-set win over Jasmine Paolini.
For the second time in six months, tennis fans are treated to a Pegula and Sabalenka final. The question is whether Pegula is up to the task of beating the best women's tennis player in the world on hardcourts. She lost to Sabalenka last summer in the finals in Cincinnati and in September at the US Open.
Jessica Pegula's monumental task is made more difficult for these reasons.
Aryna Sabalenka is in her third final in two months
Though Sabalenka lost to Madison Keys at the Australian Open and Mirra Andreeva at Indian Wells, she has been extremely consistent during the hardcourt season. She has put herself in a position to win big tournaments by breezing through the early rounds and getting to the finals. The Brisbane International champion is seeking her second 2025 WTA title.
For the first time in her career Aryna Sabalenka has reached 4 finals in the first three months of the year
— Mario Boccardi (@marioboc17) March 27, 2025
Her overall yearly record is 7 (2024) pic.twitter.com/NbnWxNjW4H
Keys and Andreeva played the matches of their lives to beat her. That is precisely what Pegula will need to do, but can the world's best female hardcourt player be denied a big title win for the third time in less than three months?
Sabalenka was recently asked what separated her from Pegula. She hesitated to answer and began by pointing out Pegula's attributes; however, she gave herself the edge on mental toughness. Sabalenka gained significant mental toughness at the 2023 US Open when she lost to Coco Gauff and has picked up more in 2025 with her high-profile losses.
Jessica Pegula is the hometown favorite, but Sabalenka is beloved wherever she goes
Pegula loves the Miami Open because it takes place less than an hour from her Florida home. The Buffalo native whose family owns the Bills also quips repeatedly about enjoying victories in the Miami Dolphins football stadium.
World #4 Jessica Pegula ends Alex Eala's incredible fairytale in Miami -- 7-6(3), 5-7, 6-3 -- to reach a first final in this tournament.
— José Morgado (@josemorgado) March 28, 2025
6th WTA 1000 final (3-2), first since Cincinnati 2024.
She will face #1 Sabalenka, who beat her in the Cincinnati and US Open finals. pic.twitter.com/rFQcLY3gV7
She is the hometown favorite, but there will be plenty of fans cheering for World No. 1 Sabalenka because she is loved wherever she goes.
Sabalenka's bubbly personality and wry sense of humor have endeared her to fans all over the world, so Pegula cannot rely on a seismic fan boost to give her energy if she needs it during the final.
Aryna Sabalenka has plenty of energy left in the tank
Sabalenka has barely broken a sweat in five rounds of play. She has not lost a set and dropped 23 games in total, seven of those were in the quarterfinal to Qinwen Zheng.
Pegula has lost over 50 games in her five rounds. She had three grueling three-set matches and was involved in four tie-breakers, two against Anna Kalinskaya, and one each with Emma Raducanu and Alexandra Eala. Pegula also started the tournament playing doubles with Ashlyn Krueger, with whom she won a first-round match. She has logged much more court time in the Miami heat and humidity than Sabalenka has.
American fans would like to see Jessica Pegula hoist the trophy. The odds are stacked against Pegula, but hopefully she can play a competitive match and give herself a chance to win the coveted Miami Open title.