Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova China Open final: Most important parts

Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova have only played one previous WTA 1000 final each. That was when they faced each other in the Cincinnati Open final, a match won by Gauff in straight sets. The pair will meet again in a WTA 1000 final on Sunday at the China Open.

The two have reached that stage in contrasting styles. Muchova only dropped one set in her six matches, while Gauff's superb mentality was demonstrated by recovering from a set down in her last three matches. The 2023 US Open winner has yet to correct everything wrong in her game, but her mental strength cannot be doubted.

Gauff and Muchova are among the best players to watch on the WTA Tour. The Chinese fans, despite being disappointed that home hero Qinwen Zheng could not win the most critical parts of the matchup against Muchova in the semifinal, should be treated to a great match. Four aspects could be particularly important in the China Open final.

The importance of Karolina Muchova's first serve

Conditions at the China Open are pretty slow, making it challenging for players to win free points on their serve. However, Muchova overcame that obstacle with a sublime serving performance against Zheng in the semifinal. She made 72 percent of her first serves, winning 79 percent of points behind her first delivery and a healthy 61.1% percent on her second serve.

Gauff is a better returner than Zheng, with her first-serve return being particularly outstanding. The court's lack of speed and her opponent's formidable return mean Muchova needs to regularly hit close to the lines to be effective behind first serve. Otherwise, the ball will come back with interest from Gauff's racket.

Paula Badosa, a very good server in her own right, had that issue in the semifinal by only winning 55 percent of points on her first serve, a low number for someone of her quality. How precise Muchova can be on serve to avoid that issue will likely be crucial throughout the contest.

How Coco Gauff manages her second serve and how Muchova attacks it

Gauff's issues with her second serve and hitting double faults have been persistent throughout the year. The American usually remains brave off the shot, continuing to hit it with decent pace even when the double faults set in. She is sometimes rewarded for her courage by her opponents struggling to attack the shot, but it can also lead to double faults being constant throughout the match.

How Muchova chooses to respond to Gauff's second serve will be fascinating. The Czech does not have one consistent tactic with her second serve return. Sometimes, she stays back, other times, she comes in and hits it hard, and occasionally, she slices off it and comes to the net. That variety alone could disrupt Gauff and put her under even more pressure on the second serve.

Regardless of how she does it, Muchova has to be effective with her second-serve return. The French Open runner-up's first serve return is not the strongest part of her game, and Gauff's return is too good for pressure to never occur on serve. That makes having relative dominance on the American's troublesome second serve absolutely pivotal.

Whether the rallies are forehand or backhand dominated

Many WTA matchups are between players with similar levels on both groundstrokes. That is not the case in this matchup. Gauff has a clear advantage on the backhand side, while Muchova's forehand is superior. Both women will try to make those facts count during the rallies.

Muchova may use her slice down the line when possible to reset the rally as a forehand-to-forehand cross-court battle. Which player is most willing to hit their stronger groundstroke down the line with pace to catch their opponent out when they are leaning to the cross-court side will be another important factor in the rallies.

Will Muchova be mentally ready to seize this opportunity?

Muchova has undoubtedly played the best tennis of any WTA player throughout the China Open. Gauff, on the other hand, has fought through issues in her game, especially on second serve, with superb mental endurance. The Czech will try to banish some demons in big matches by securing the China Open title.

Muchova lost last year's French Open final to Iga Swiatek from a break up in the third set, her recent US Open semifinal from a set and a break up against Jessica Pegula, and her only previous WTA 1000 final in straight sets against Gauff. Those losses do not show Muchova is mentally weak; her outstanding comeback from ten months out with an injury shows her mental strength. However, those previous defeats are a weight she hopes to get off her shoulders.

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