Wimbledon women's final preview and prediction: Barbora Krejcikova vs Jasmine Paolini

Both Wimbledon women's singles semifinals saw a player with outlandish power face off against a gritty all-around player. In both matches, the power player was outmaneuvered and outlasted in three sets.

Jasmine Paolini emerged victorious in a final set tiebreaker against Donna Vekic to reach her second consecutive major final. In the second semifinal, Barbora Krejcikova outlasted 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina. Rybakina had been the favorite to win the tournament for several rounds but was undone by the defensive skills and solid serving of her Czech opponent.

On paper, the women's final should be one of the most even finals in years.

Making the case for Barbora Krejcikova

Former world number two Barbora Krejcikova has reached her second singles major final after defeating three of the most powerful players on the WTA tour. Using her all-court game, Krejcikova diffused Danielle Collins, Jelena Ostapenko, and Elena Rybakina in consecutive matches to reach the Wimbledon final.

A prolific doubles player, Krejcikova's singles career has fluctuated over the past few years. However, at her best, she can and has defeated the best players in the world. Need a refresher? Check out her WTA 1000 triumph in Dubai over Iga Swiatek.

Krejcikova has far more experience at the late stage of majors than Paolini. On top of her singles triumph at the 2021 French Open, Krejcikova has won 7 women's doubles majors and three Australian Open mixed doubles titles. Wimbledon has been a happy hunting ground for Czech women over the years, with Krejcikova hoping to join past champions Martina Navratilova, Jana Novotna, Petra Kvitova, and Marketa Vondrousova.

Krejcikova served incredibly well in her last two sets against Rybakina. She absorbed Rybakina's pace from the ground and injected her own pace when possible. Paolini proves a vastly different opponent from the ones the Czech has played in the last three rounds and will not be thrown off by mere consistency. Krejcikova will need to balance her defense with offense at appropriate times to overcome the Italian.

How Jasmine Paolini could win her maiden major

2024 has been a banner year for Paolini. Prior to 2024, Paolini had never advanced beyond the second round at a major. Paolini opened the year with a fourth-round finish at the Australian Open. She then shocked the tennis world with a title run at the WTA 1000 event in Dubai and made the finals of the French Open in both singles and doubles. During her French Open run, Paolini upset Rybakina in the quarterfinals.

Perhaps even more surprisingly, Paolini has followed up her French Open performance with a finals appearance at Wimbledon. The clay-to-grass transition can be a daunting one, and no female player had made finals at the French Open and Wimbledon in the same year since Serena Williams in 2016. Paolini has played more aggressively on the grass and moves as well as any player can on the surface.

This is the second time Paolini will play a major singles final and this time she will not enter as the overwhelming underdog. She may even be the favorite, as she is the higher-ranked player. It will be interesting to see how she handles the pressure. Paolini needs to serve well and play with controlled aggression.

Prediction

This has been one of the hardest majors in recent years to predict. Perhaps fittingly, the final feels like a 50-50 toss-up. I tend to err on the side of experience when it comes to a major final, and Krejcikova has played on the biggest stages much more than Paolini has. It will be tight, but I think the Czech will become the latest from her country to win Wimbledon.

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