There's no home-court advantage at the Miami Open, based on the draw for the top Americans in the field.
Statistically, No. 12 seed Tommy Paul from the United States will have the toughest draw among the top players, based on the average world ranking of likely opponents, when the 96-player ATP 1000 event gets underway on March 19.
After a first-round bye, Paul likely will face Sebastian Baez, who is ranked No. 36 in the world and just missed earning a seed himself. The opponents would only get tougher from there.
The top Americans got challenging draws in Miami
No. 3 seed and top-ranked American Taylor Fritz faces a similar predicament. Fritz’s most likely first-round opponent is No. 38 Lorenzo Sonego, also a near-seed. Fritz then could play Denis Shapovalov, a former top 10 player, all merely to get to the second week of the tournament.
No. 14 seed Grigor Dimitrov needs a strong result in Miami after making the final last year to maintain a spot in the top 20. He got an assist in the form of the best draw, statistically, among the top seeds. Dimitrov will play his first match against a qualifier or 17-year-old Italian wild card Federico Cina. His round of 32 match would be against No. 22 seed Karen Khachanov – who has a losing record in 2025 – a qualifier, or the unpredictable Nick Kyrgios.
Yibing Wu, a wild card from China, statistically faces the toughest draw of any player. Wu plays No. 35 Matteo Arnaldi, who just missed the seeds list, in the first round. His most likely opponents further into the draw would all rank in the top 20.
The two qualifiers near the bottom of the draw’s third quadrant got, statistically, the best draw among the unseeded players. Those two qualifiers will play each other in Round 1. The winner will advance to face Alex Michelson, at No. 32 the last of the seeded players. The third round could present a matchup against No. 4 seed Novak Djokovic, who fell against a lucky loser from qualifying in the most recent ATP 1000 event in Indian Wells.