WTA Doha: Final Prediction

WTA Doha: Final Prediction- Victoria Azarenka vs Lucie Safarova

(Rank/Seed)

The semi finals of the Qatar Total Open were completed today and they couldn’t have been more dissimilar.

Firstly, (15/-) Lucie Safarova comfortably defeated (14/9) Carla Suarez Navarro 63 62. The Czech had beaten her opponent on both previous occasions, but in light of the last couple of rounds where Carla had defeated higher ranked Czechs, I didn’t predict she’d extend her perfect record quite so easily. She really wasn’t troubled at all as she dictated the match with her crisp left handed forehand. Whereas Kvitova had gone off the boil in the previous round, Lucie looked a picture of self belief as she bossed the rallies.

Later, with David Beckham watching in the stands, (48/WC) Victoria Azarenka outlasted (17/7) Venus Williams 26 62 64 in one of the best matches this year. Victoria had never taken a set off Venus in 4 previous encounters and after the first set, where Venus played power tennis reminiscent of her Wimbledon glory days, you could see why. However, Victoria changed her tactics and rushed the net in the second set. As unlikely as it seemed, this turned the momentum in her favour. By the 3rd set, Azarenka had seized control, storming out to a 4-0 and 5-2 lead, barely missing a shot. She blended forceful groundstrokes with subtle slices and volleys and served and returned accurately throughout, particularly as I predicted on Venus’s second serve. However, Venus is a true champion and despite struggling physically in the end as I had predicted, reduced a 2-5 deficit to 4-5 to ask the ‘serve it out’ question of Azarenka. Clutch serving got the job done for her 1st career win over Venus after a spell-binding contest! For Venus, there was nothing to be disappointed about. How often do you finish a match with a 43:20 winner:error ratio and still lose the match?

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So, who do I think will win the final?

Experience: Victoria is by far the more experienced, having won 17 of her previous 32 finals. This includes 2 Australian Open titles. In contrast, Lucie has won 5 of her previous 12 and has lost all 3 Premier level finals she’s contested. Still, Victoria hasn’t been in a final since Brisbane in January 2014 and hasn’t won a title since August 2013 in Cincinnati, so she’s a little out of practice considering her injury struggles throughout 2014.

Recent Form: Lucie has been in the better form as of late, recovering from a poor start in Australia with quarter final appearances in Antwerp and Dubai, beating Venus Williams en route in the latter. Victoria has been a dangerous floater due to her low ranking this year, taking out Caroline Wozniacki to reach the 4th round at the Australian Open. Since losing to Dominika Cibulkova in 3 sets, she hasn’t played bar in Fed Cup.

Route Through: Both players have had tough draws from the very start. Lucie has had to beat Samantha Stosur, (9/5) Ekaterina Makarova, (10/6) Andrea Petkovic and Carla Suarez Navarro, dropping just the one set to Makarova. Victoria has had to beat (11/8) Angelique Kerber, Elina Svitolina, (5/3) Caroline Wozniacki and Venus Williams, dropping sets to Svitolina and Williams en route. Based on Lucie’s easier route and semi final, she’s no doubt the fresher of the two.

Past Results in Doha: Victoria loves it here, winning the titles in 2012 and 2013 off the back of her Australian Open successes. She’s now won her last 14 matches at the event stretching back to 2012, during which time she’s now beaten the likes of both Williams sisters on this very court. Lucie’s best appearance here until now was a 3 set quarter final loss to Marion Bartoli in 2012, after having beaten Caroline Wozniacki and Svetlana Kuznetsova.

Head to Head: Victoria has never lost to Lucie in all 6 previous matches, dropping only one set. However, they haven’t played since Madrid 2011, when Victoria hadn’t even won a Grand Slam yet! So, this meeting might as well be treated as if its the first. Both will look to be the aggressor, and Victoria will have to continue serving well in order to avoid having her second serve attacked. Lucie is never more dangerous than when she is playing confidently, but has a tendency to get nervous during big occasions. I think that though Victoria may come off second best in a fair few baseline rallies, her greater experience, nerve and strength of character will assist her to a 3rd title in succession here.

Who will win? Prediction: Azarenka

Next: WTA Doha: Semi Final Predictions

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