WTA Indian Wells: Final Prediction

WTA Indian Wells: Halep vs Jankovic

(Rank/Seed)

The final is set in Indian Wells! Romanian, (3/3) Simona Halep will play Serbian, (21/18) Jelena Jankovic. I predicted that Jankovic would pull through her semi final, yet Halep’s progression came as a surprise. Still, no one could have foreseen a knee injury forcing the withdrawal of (1/1) Serena Williams prior to the semi final! It was such a shame, considering it looked as if Serena was likely to cap her first visit to Indian Wells in 14 years with the title! Though I’m sure she was apprehensive about announcing her decision, she obviously felt that the injury was too severe to continue. So who do I think will win the title?

Experience: Both players have vast levels of experience, after all Jankovic is a former world number one! Halep has a much cleaner ratio in finals, winning 10 of her previous 16 finals, compared to Jankovic who has only won 13 of her previous 32 finals! Both players have won big events before and have contested Grand Slam finals, so the occasion shouldn’t get the better of either of them. However, this is Jelena’s first final in almost a year and she hasn’t won a title since February 2013! For this reason, it’s Advantage: Halep

Recent Form: Halep’s having a great year! She’s lost only 2 matches and has already won 2 titles in Shenzhen and Dubai! Jankovic had been struggling coming into this event, winning only 2 of 4 matches and sustained a right hip injury in Doha. Advantage: Halep

More from Serena Williams

Route Through: Both players have had their fair share of 3 setters this week. Halep needed 3 sets to beat Daria Gavrilova, (31/26) Varvara Lepchenko and (13/12) Carla Suarez Navarro. She was at her best in the 4th round against the in- form (15/14) Karolina Pliskova and benefitted from the surprising withdrawal of Serena Williams prior to the semis. Therefore, she will have had a good 2 days rest ahead of the final on Sunday. Jankovic has laboured through her matches all week, requiring 3 sets to beat Lauren Davis, (18/16) Madison Keys, (37/31) Belinda Bencic and most recently, (30/24) Sabine Lisicki 36 63 61 in a very nervy semi final. Halep will be the fresher of the two and Jankovic, at 30, is 7 years older than her opponent. Advantage: Halep

Past Results in Indian Wells: Jelena has often played well here, this being her 2nd final appearance after beating Caroline Wozniacki for the title back in 2010. Last year, she was still a top 10 player and lost to Agnieszka Radwanska in the quarters, the same woman who took out Halep in the semis in what, until now, was the Romanian’s best showing. As both have performed well here before, neither has the advantage. Deuce!

Head to Head: Halep dominates the head to head 3-1 and hasn’t lost to Jelena since 2010! Even then, when Jelena was a top 10 player and Halep was still a teenager, Jelena barely won 64 46 75! However, all of Simona’s wins have required 3 sets to decide, with some as close as either 75 or 76 in the third set. There last meeting came in the 4th round of the 2014 Australian Open, when Simona beat Jelena 64 26 60! The two players are rather similar in that neither possesses a knock out punch. This means that there will be plenty of long, physical rallies as each player looks to out-position the other from the baseline. As both players make few errors and defend well, the key will be who can be aggressive when the time arises. I think Simona is slightly better at pulling the trigger when it comes to going for a winner and I also think that she has developed a calmer on-court demeanour lately which should help her focus. In contrast, no one rants and raves quite like Jelena Jankovic on her day, which can be self destructive. Advantage: Halep

So, Halep has the advantage in almost every department. I think that she is a better and more aggressive match player than she was when the two last met and is now in the habit of winning big titles. Though Jelena has done well to get here, her nerves interfered with her semi final showing and in this final, I feel that she will struggle to make much of an impression unless Simona has an off day, as she did against Ekaterina Makarova at the Australian Open.

Final Prediction: Simona Halep

Next: WTA Indian Wells: Semi Final Predictions

More from Lob and Smash

Home/Serena Williams