WTA Miami: Final Prediction

WTA Miami: Serena set to play Suarez Navarro

(Rank/Seed)

(1/1) Serena Williams will face (12/12) Carla Suarez Navarro in the final of the Miami Open. I predicted that Serena Williams would make it but Carla continues to amaze me! She really has improved this year, particularly in terms of the way she raises her level in big matches these days! This is my prediction as to who I think will win the title.

Experience: Understandably, Serena Williams has BY FAR the more experience at this level than her opponent! She has already won 65 titles, 19 of which are Grand Slams and in contrast has only ever lost a paltry 19 finals! In contrast, Carla had NEVER even been to a semi final of a Premier Mandatory level event like this before! She has however reached 7 finals in the past, but has won only 1, that coming on the clay in Portugal last May. Advantage: Williams

Recent Form: Serena has won her last 20 matches, stretching back to the WTA Championships in October last year. She has won all 17 matches she’s played this year, including her 19th Grand Slam title at the Australian Open. Carla is also having a great start to the year, reaching the quarter finals or better in 7 of the 8 events she’s contested. By virtue of this finals appearance, she will become only the 3rd Spanish woman, behind Arantxa Sanchez Vicario and Conchita Martinez to crack the WORLD’S TOP 10! Despite this, it’s still…Advantage: Williams

Route Through: Serena has struggled in her last 2 matches, requiring 3 sets to beat both (21/27) Sabine Lisicki and (3/3) Simona Halep, winning the latter 62 46 75. Halep did well to hang on as Serena started the match at a ferocious pace, but as the score got closer, Serena became uptight and Simona converted the only break point of the 2nd set. Despite distractions from the raucous crowd, Serena forged ahead to 5-2, only to be pegged back as Simona made sure to make her 1st serve and Williams’s forehand deserted her. In the end though, the fight back was to no avail as Williams dropped a mere point over the last 2 games to end Simona’s own winning streak of 14 straight matches.

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Carla has also experienced her fair share of trouble along the way, requiring 3 sets to edge both (8/7) Agnieszka Radwanska and (16/16) Venus Williams, recovering from dropping the 1st set 60 in the latter! In the semis, Carla was always in control against an irritable and tense (10/9) Andrea Petkovic, winning 63 63 as the German’s power game never got going. Neither player has an obvious advantage here in terms of fatigue, so it’s…Deuce

Past Results in Miami: Serena RULES Miami, this being her 10th final here! She has won 7 titles at what she considers to be her home event, including 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2013 and 2014. That’s more Miami titles than any other tournament in her career! The only 2 finals she lost were 1999, when big sister Venus got the better of her in 3 sets and 2009, when a young Victoria Azarenka handled an injury stricken Williams emphatically. So, as you can see, Serena is gunning for a 2nd hat trick at this event! Carla had only made the 4th round here before this year, losing last year to the then number 2 ranked, Australian Open champion, Li Na 60 62! Advantage: Williams

Head to Head: Serena has crushed Carla in all 4 of their previous meetings, dropping only 5 games at worst in their last meeting on clay in Madrid last May! During their other 3 meetings, Serena took at least one set to love and in 2013, Serena gave Carla a wonderful 25th birthday present; a 60 60 double bagel in the US Open quarter finals!

In this match, we know what we’ll get from Serena! It will be of vital importance that Carla has a high 1st serve percentage and looks to be aggressive in opening up the court with her forehand, as she did against Venus. She must also realise that she has nothing to lose and should play without pressure or inhibition. Still, it’s a huge ask considering the past head to head and though Carla’s playing better now, her game isn’t all THAT different to what it was before. Advantage: Williams

So, I think it’s pretty clear that Serena has the advantage in almost all departments. As always, it’s on her racket and unless she gets extremely nervous and makes a huge amount of unforced errors, I can’t see her losing!

Final Prediction: Serena Williams

Next: WTA Miami: Semi Final Predictions

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