French Open: Women's Final Prediction

French Open: Will Serena strike 20?

(Rank/Seed)

The final of the French Open is set. American, (1/1) Serena Williams will face the Czech, (13/13) Lucie Safarova. Though Serena’s final appearance was expected, few would have predicted that Lucie would have such a sensational fortnight.

Will Serena become the third woman ever, after Margaret Court and Steffi Graf to win twenty Grand Slam singles titles?

Can Safarova become only the 2nd lefty in the Open Era, behind Monica Seles, to win the French Open?

Here is my prediction as to who I think will win the French Open.

Experience: Williams has a huge advantage in this department. She has won sixty six titles in her career, nineteen of which are Grand Slams. In contrast, she’s lost only seventeen finals in her career and only four in Grand Slams.

This puts Safarova’s six titles into the shade. Her biggest win to date came this year at the Premier event in Doha. Unlike Williams’s stellar record, Safarova has lost seven finals and has never played a Grand Slam final before.

It’s like comparing chalk and cheese…Advantage: Williams

Recent Form: This year, Williams has an incredible 31-1 win-loss record. This involved her winning her sixth Australian Open and her eighth title in Miami. Her only loss came against Petra Kvitova in the semis of Madrid, when the left handed Czech tore Serena’s serve apart. Is that an omen of what’s to come tomorrow?

Safarova has been typically erratic until now. The high note came in winning Doha, where she defeated the likes of Ekaterina Makarova, Andrea Petkovic, Carla Suarez Navarro and Victoria Azarenka for the title. In preparation for the French Open, she lost to Svetlana Kuznetsova in the quarters of Madrid, despite holding match points. Still, there have been many poor losses too, such as those in the first round of the Australian Open and her home event in Prague.

Advantage: Williams

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Route Through: According to wtatennis.com, Serena skipped her post match conference after her semi final win, claiming to be unwell. That would explain her torturous route this week. She’s been required to come from a set behind in four of the six matches she’s played here, including her semi final against (24/23) Timea Bacsinszky. Down a set and a break, Serena looked mighty sorry for herself as she laboured about the court. Somehow, in the same old perplexing style we’ve seen time and time again, she then proceeded to win ten straight games and the match 46 63 60.

In complete contrast, Lucie hasn’t dropped a set all week. She’s gone from strength to strength each match, backing up her upset of the defending champion, Maria Sharapova in the fourth round. In a tense semi final against 2008 champion, (7/7) Ana Ivanovic, Lucie recovered from 2-5 down in the first set en route to a 75 75 win. Towards the end, Ana certainly helped Lucie over the finish line as she served it out the second time around.

One thing Safarova has going for her is physical health…Advantage: Safarova

Past Results in Paris: Though Serena’s record pales to those she owns elsewhere, she has never lost a final here, winning in 2002 and 2013. She’s also aiming to become the first woman since Jennifer Capriati in 2001 to win the Australian and French Opens in the same year, keeping her bid for the ‘Grand Slam’ very much alive in the process.

Lucie’s success here in Paris really has come as a surprise, considering she’d never gone beyond the fourth round in ten previous attempts. She’s also into the women’s doubles final too, alongside Bethanie Mattek Sands with whom she won this year’s Australian Open.

Advantage: Williams

Head to Head: Perhaps the most important statistic is Serena’s 8-0 record against Safarova. However, the matches have been getting closer. In Beijing last October, Safarova pushed Williams to three sets. At the Hopman Cup in January, though it wasn’t an official match, she failed to serve out the match before losing a third set tiebreak. So, with those matches in mind, Safarova is clearly gaining ground on Williams.

Advantage: Williams

Overall, it’s clear that Williams has a huge advantage in winning four of five categories. The match will be fascinating as no one can tell how Serena is really feeling. If Serena isn’t at her best, Safarova has the serve, power and aggression to take advantage. The major question will be whether she can maintain it, as no other player has been capable of this all tournament. Will she have the nerve to close Williams out?

I can’t help but feel that Williams will work her way from behind once again. Even if Lucie has a good start, I can’t see her being able to sustain it and then actually hold her nerve to close the match out.

French Open: Women’s Final Prediction- Serena Williams

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